Watching the Tropics

Watching the Tropics is updated at 2AM, 5AM, 8AM, 11AM, 2PM, 5PM, 8PM, and 11PM daily
Last updated at 8/20/2025 8:03:41 AM
Atlantic Hurricane Basin Tracking Updates
Watching the Tropics tracks storms destined to the United States East coast, the Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico out of the Atlantic hurricane basin.
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Hurricane Erin Hurricane Erin - Category 2

Advisory:
8/20/2025 8:00:00 AM
Location:
29.6, -73.7
341 statute miles (549 km) to the NE (49°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
Winds:
100 mph - Category 2
Movement:
NNW at 13 mph
Pressure:
948 mb

Hurricane Erin is currently impacting the western Atlantic near Bermuda and Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph. The large hurricane's outer bands are expected to bring deteriorating weather conditions to the North Carolina coast by this evening. Beachgoers are advised against swimming due to life-threatening surf and rip currents.

Warnings are in effect for North Carolina, with a Storm Surge Warning from Cape Lookout to Duck and a Tropical Storm Warning from Beaufort Inlet to the Virginia border. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect further north to Chincoteague, Virginia, and for Bermuda. Residents in these areas should be attentive to local advisories.

Erin is moving north-northwest at 13 mph but is expected to turn northeast by Friday, passing south of Atlantic Canada over the weekend. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the North Carolina Outer Banks late Wednesday and may extend to Virginia and Bermuda by Thursday and Friday. Dangerous swells from Erin are impacting the Bahamas, east coast of the U.S., and Atlantic Canada.

Hurricane Erin - 5 Day Cone
Hurricane Erin - 5 Day Cone
Hurricane Erin - 3 Day Tropical Storm Winds
Hurricane Erin - 3 Day Tropical Storm Winds
Hurricane Erin - Key Messages
Hurricane Erin - Key Messages
Hurricane Erin - Peak Storm Surge
Hurricane Erin - Peak Storm Surge
Hurricane Erin - Current Wind
Hurricane Erin - Current Wind
Hurricane Erin - 5 Day Cone History
Hurricane Erin - 5 Day Cone History
Storm Hurricane Erin Spaghetti Models
Hurricane Erin Spaghetti Models
Storm Hurricane Erin Precipitation
Hurricane Erin Precipitation
Storm Hurricane Erin Thunderstorm Probability
Hurricane Erin Thunderstorm Probability
Storm Hurricane Erin wind speed projections
Hurricane Erin Wind Speed Projections
Storm Hurricane Erin wind speed history
Hurricane Erin Wind Speed History
Storm Hurricane Erin historical path
Hurricane Erin Historical Path

Hurricane Erin Status

Hurricane Erin is impacting the US East Coast, bringing dangerous beach conditions and causing concerns for coastal communities. Massachusetts is witnessing particularly severe impacts, leading to officials closing numerous beaches and issuing warnings about powerful rip currents and high surf. The hurricane's intensity has caused disruptions to summer celebrations, as safety measures take precedence to protect residents and tourists from the hazardous weather conditions. Emergency services are closely monitoring the weather developments to provide timely updates and support to affected areas.

The hurricane's path remains unpredictable, with recent shifts prompting new tropical storm warnings along the coast. Authorities urge residents to remain vigilant and adhere to safety instructions, as the situation can evolve rapidly. Hurricane Erin's progression and impact underscore the need for preparedness during the Atlantic hurricane season, as communities brace for potential further disruptions. While meteorologists track the storm's movements, cooperation from the public is essential to mitigate risks and ensure safety for all those in the estimated path of the hurricane.

Invest 99L Invest 99L

Location:
13.4, -26.9
Storm Invest 99L Spaghetti Models
Invest 99L Spaghetti Models
Storm Invest 99L Precipitation
Invest 99L Precipitation
Storm Invest 99L Thunderstorm Probability
Invest 99L Thunderstorm Probability
Storm Invest 99L wind speed projections
Invest 99L Wind Speed Projections

Invest 99L Status

In the aftermath of Hurricane Erin, weather experts are turning their attention to two new tropical disturbances developing in the Atlantic Ocean. Invest 99L, alongside another system, are gaining attention due to their potential for formation as they move through regions favorable for storm development. These disturbances, although currently in their early stages, highlight the unpredictable nature of the Atlantic hurricane season, which continues to pose challenges for meteorologists. As these systems progress, tracking their paths becomes critical to predict possible impacts on land and prepare necessary precautions.

Despite the potential threats posed by these tropical waves, they face a challenging path ahead. Forecasters note that both disturbances must overcome certain atmospheric conditions, such as dry air and unfavorable wind shear, which could hinder their development into more organized systems. As the National Hurricane Center keeps close watch, coastal communities in vulnerable areas are advised to stay informed about any updates regarding the systems' intensification. The recent surge in tropical activity signals the peak phase of the hurricane season, underscoring the importance of preparedness for regions susceptible to tropical storm impacts.

7 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
Florida Radar
Florida Radar
GOES 19
Sandwich Composite
Sandwich Composite
Today's Tornado Risk
Today's Tornado Risk
8-14 Day Temperature Outlook
8-14 Day Temperature Outlook
8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook
8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook
Global Tropics Hazard Outlook
Global Tropics Hazard Outlook
30 Day Coral Reef Watch
Current Atlantic and Gulf Winds

Atlantic Hurricane Basin Summary

August 20, 2025, at 5:00 AM EDT

Hurricane Erin is currently located near 28.9N 73.3W, approximately 480 nautical miles west-southwest of Bermuda, moving north-northwest at 11 knots. The hurricane has maximum sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts up to 105 knots, and peak seas near 44 feet close to the center. Erin is expected to shift its direction towards north and north-northeast today, accelerating towards the northeast by Thursday and Friday. The hurricane will move over the western Atlantic between the United States east coast and Bermuda then pass south of Atlantic Canada by the weekend. Erin's swells will impact the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the U.S., and Atlantic Canada, creating life-threatening surf and rip currents. Further details are available from the National Hurricane Center's website.

In the tropical wave updates, a far eastern Atlantic wave is moving westward with moderate to strong convection, but conditions are expected to become less favorable for its development by the week's end. Another wave in the central Atlantic might gradually develop, potentially forming a tropical depression later this week. Meanwhile, a new wave has entered the eastern Caribbean with no significant convection.

Current Power Outages

Last updated 8/20/2025 8:07:38 AM
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2025 Hurricane Prediction

​NOAA's 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025.

  • Named Storms: 13 to 19

  • Hurricanes: 6 to 10

  • Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher): 3 to 5

  • Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE): 95% to 180% of the median

This forecast indicates a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.

Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30

2025 Storm Names

Andrea- TS Barry- TS Chantal- TS Dexter- TS Erin - Cat 5 Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

Key: Active Past Future

*Press/click the storm name to view additional details

2024 Hurricane Summary

  • 18 named storms
  • 11 hurricanes
  • 5 major hurricanes (Cat. 3+)
  • Total damage: ~$200 billion
Notable Hurricanes
  • Hurricane Beryl: Formed in late June, Beryl became the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record in the Atlantic basin. It made landfall on Carriacou in Grenada, causing significant damage and resulting in two fatalities.
  • Hurricane Helene: In September, Helene struck the southeastern United States, particularly devastating North Carolina. It was the deadliest storm to hit the U.S. mainland since Hurricane Katrina in 2005, with over 200 reported deaths and an estimated $48.8 billion in damages.
  • Hurricane Milton: In October, Milton rapidly intensified to a Category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds reaching 180 mph, making it one of the strongest hurricanes ever recorded in the Gulf of Mexico.
  • Hurricane Rafael: In November, Rafael reached Category 3 status before making landfall in Cuba, highlighting the season's prolonged activity.

Atlantic Hurricane Statistics

Named
Hurricanes
Major
Average
14.4
7.2
3.2
High
30
15
7
Low
4
2
0

Most Active Hurricane Season

2020 - 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes

Costliest Hurricanes

Hurricane Katrina (2005) - $125 billion

Harvey (2017) - $125 billion

Strongest Hurricanes (Based on Wind Speed)

Hurricane Patricia (2015) - 215 mph (345 km/h)

Hurricane Allen (1980) - 190 mph (305 km/h)

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale in MPH

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating system that classifies hurricanes based on their sustained wind speeds and the potential damage they can cause. It helps communicate the intensity of hurricanes and the likely impacts on structures and environments. The scale does not account for factors like storm surge or rainfall, focusing only on wind speeds.

About Watching the Tropics

Watching the Tropics was originally built as a personal storm tracker with only the most important charts for the Atlantic hurricane basin. Numerous sites are available for tracking hurricanes, but Watching the Tropics minimizes extra "noise" and shows only what you need.

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Dillaman Research DillaDev.com

What does Watching the Tropics mean?

"Watching the tropics" refers to monitoring tropical weather systems, such as tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, in regions close to the equator. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts often use this phrase during hurricane season to indicate that they're keeping an eye on developing weather systems that could potentially strengthen and impact areas like the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean.

Websites, news outlets, or weather services also use "Tropics Watch" to keep the public informed about the latest developments in the tropics, especially during peak hurricane season.

What is an "invest" in the context of hurricanes?

An "invest" refers to an area of disturbed weather that meteorologists are investigating for potential tropical development. The term "invest" is short for "investigation area."

When an area is designated as an invest, it is given a number (between 90 and 99) followed by the letter "L" for systems in the North Atlantic or "E" for systems in the Eastern Pacific. For example, "Invest 91L" would refer to the 91st area of interest in the Atlantic basin for that season.

The designation of an invest allows meteorologists to focus their resources on a specific area, utilize specialized forecasting models, and issue updates as needed.

What is a Tropical Depression?

A tropical depression is a type of tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of less than 39 mph (34 knots or 63 km/h).

Key characteristics:

  • Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms
  • Has a defined surface circulation
  • Lacks the wind intensity of stronger tropical cyclones
  • May eventually strengthen into a tropical storm if conditions are favorable

It's the first stage of development in the tropical cyclone classification used by the National Hurricane Center, followed by tropical storm and then hurricane.

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