Tropical Storm Jerry
Invest 96L
October 9, 2025, at 5:00 AM EDT
Tropical Storm Jerry is currently located near 15.7N 57.7W and is moving west-northwest at 17 kt with maximum sustained winds of 55 kt. It is expected to pass near or northeast of the northern Leeward Islands today, generating large swells reaching the Greater Antilles by Friday. These swells may cause dangerous surf and rip currents.
Heavy rainfall is impacting eastern Mexico due to a trough in the Bay of Campeche, with strong winds and potential flooding expected in southern Mexico.
A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is near 30W, another in the eastern Caribbean is near 70W, and a third in the western Caribbean is along 81W.
The Gulf of America experiences moderate to strong convection near the Mexican coast, with a high-pressure ridge promoting NE to E winds across the basin. Conditions are expected to calm by early next week.
In the Caribbean Sea, Tropical Storm Jerry will pass N of the Leeward Islands, possibly becoming a hurricane by Friday. The storm's swells will affect the region. Elsewhere, moderate winds and occasional showers are noted.
In the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Jerry is central, expected to strengthen and move northward, potentially impacting the eastern US later. A stationary front extends southwest from 31N35W with associated moderate to fresh NE-E winds and scattered convection.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025.
Named Storms: 13 to 19
Hurricanes: 6 to 10
Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher): 3 to 5
Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE): 95% to 180% of the median
This forecast indicates a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30Key: Active Past Future
*Press/click the storm name to view additional details2020 - 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes
Hurricane Katrina (2005) - $125 billion
Harvey (2017) - $125 billion
Hurricane Patricia (2015) - 215 mph (345 km/h)
Hurricane Allen (1980) - 190 mph (305 km/h)
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating system that classifies hurricanes based on their sustained wind speeds and the potential damage they can cause. It helps communicate the intensity of hurricanes and the likely impacts on structures and environments. The scale does not account for factors like storm surge or rainfall, focusing only on wind speeds.
Watching the Tropics was originally built as a personal storm tracker with only the most important charts for the Atlantic hurricane basin. Numerous sites are available for tracking hurricanes, but Watching the Tropics minimizes extra "noise" and shows only what you need.
Designed in Florida by
"Watching the tropics" refers to monitoring tropical weather systems, such as tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, in regions close to the equator. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts often use this phrase during hurricane season to indicate that they're keeping an eye on developing weather systems that could potentially strengthen and impact areas like the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean.
Websites, news outlets, or weather services also use "Tropics Watch" to keep the public informed about the latest developments in the tropics, especially during peak hurricane season.
An "invest" refers to an area of disturbed weather that meteorologists are investigating for potential tropical development. The term "invest" is short for "investigation area."
When an area is designated as an invest, it is given a number (between 90 and 99) followed by the letter "L" for systems in the North Atlantic or "E" for systems in the Eastern Pacific. For example, "Invest 91L" would refer to the 91st area of interest in the Atlantic basin for that season.
The designation of an invest allows meteorologists to focus their resources on a specific area, utilize specialized forecasting models, and issue updates as needed.
A tropical depression is a type of tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of less than 39 mph (34 knots or 63 km/h).
Key characteristics:
It's the first stage of development in the tropical cyclone classification used by the National Hurricane Center, followed by tropical storm and then hurricane.
