Watching the Tropics

Watching the Tropics is updated at 2AM, 5AM, 8AM, 11AM, 2PM, 5PM, 8PM, and 11PM daily
Last updated at 7/1/2025 2:03:23 AM
Atlantic Hurricane Basin Tracking Updates
Watching the Tropics tracks storms destined to the United States East coast, the Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico out of the Atlantic hurricane basin.
Archive Disclaimers NHC Advisories Definitions
7 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
Florida Radar
Florida Radar
GOES 16
Sandwich Composite
Sandwich Composite
Today's Tornado Risk
Today's Tornado Risk
8-14 Day Temperature Outlook
8-14 Day Temperature Outlook
8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook
8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook
Global Tropics Hazard Outlook
Global Tropics Hazard Outlook

Atlantic Hurricane Basin Summary

The National Hurricane Center reports a Caribbean Gale Warning due to strong easterly trade winds between a subtropical ridge near Bermuda and low pressures in northern South America. Gale-force winds were noted off northern Colombia, with rough seas expected. These conditions will reduce by late morning but are expected to return tonight into Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, several tropical waves are moving across the Atlantic and Caribbean. A tropical wave along 78W is observed with few showers, and another wave along 61W shows no significant convection.

In the Gulf of America, scattered showers continue in the eastern and SW Gulf, influenced by a broad subtropical ridge. Winds and seas are set to improve overnight across the western Gulf, with a weak cold front predicted to move southward across north Florida towards the end of the week. Low pressure could develop along the weakening front, with potential tropical development over the weekend.

In the Caribbean Sea, aside from the central Caribbean, moderate to fresh easterly winds are present south of 20N with an upper-level low enhancing convection across western Cuba. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a strong subtropical ridge in the northern Atlantic, supporting fresh to strong winds north of 19N and east of 35W, especially in the Canary Islands region.

For the Atlantic Ocean, a Bermuda High is maintaining moderate to fresh E to SE winds south of 25N through Thursday, with some areas experiencing strong winds. A weak cold front is forecast to enter the NW zones on Friday. Overall, moderate or weaker winds are prevalent across most areas west of 55W.

June 30, 2025, at 5:00 AM EDT

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2025 Hurricane Prediction

​NOAA's 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025.

  • Named Storms: 13 to 19

  • Hurricanes: 6 to 10

  • Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher): 3 to 5

  • Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE): 95% to 180% of the median

This forecast indicates a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.

Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30

2025 Storm Names

Andrea- TS Barry- TS Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

Key: Active Past Future

*Press/click the storm name to view additional details

2024 Hurricane Summary

  • 18 named storms
  • 11 hurricanes
  • 5 major hurricanes (Cat. 3+)
  • Total damage: ~$200 billion
Notable Hurricanes
  • Hurricane Beryl: Formed in late June, Beryl became the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record in the Atlantic basin. It made landfall on Carriacou in Grenada, causing significant damage and resulting in two fatalities.
  • Hurricane Helene: In September, Helene struck the southeastern United States, particularly devastating North Carolina. It was the deadliest storm to hit the U.S. mainland since Hurricane Katrina in 2005, with over 200 reported deaths and an estimated $48.8 billion in damages.
  • Hurricane Milton: In October, Milton rapidly intensified to a Category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds reaching 180 mph, making it one of the strongest hurricanes ever recorded in the Gulf of Mexico.
  • Hurricane Rafael: In November, Rafael reached Category 3 status before making landfall in Cuba, highlighting the season's prolonged activity.

Atlantic Hurricane Statistics

Named
Hurricanes
Major
Average
14.4
7.2
3.2
High
30
15
7
Low
4
2
0

Most Active Hurricane Season

2020 - 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes

Costliest Hurricanes

Hurricane Katrina (2005) - $125 billion

Harvey (2017) - $125 billion

Strongest Hurricanes (Based on Wind Speed)

Hurricane Patricia (2015) - 215 mph (345 km/h)

Hurricane Allen (1980) - 190 mph (305 km/h)

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale in MPH

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating system that classifies hurricanes based on their sustained wind speeds and the potential damage they can cause. It helps communicate the intensity of hurricanes and the likely impacts on structures and environments. The scale does not account for factors like storm surge or rainfall, focusing only on wind speeds.

About Watching the Tropics

Watching the Tropics was originally built as a personal storm tracker with only the most important charts for the Atlantic hurricane basin. Numerous sites are available for tracking hurricanes, but Watching the Tropics minimizes extra "noise" and shows only what you need.

Designed in Florida by

Dillaman Research DillaDev.com

What does Watching the Tropics mean?

"Watching the tropics" refers to monitoring tropical weather systems, such as tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, in regions close to the equator. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts often use this phrase during hurricane season to indicate that they're keeping an eye on developing weather systems that could potentially strengthen and impact areas like the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean.

Websites, news outlets, or weather services also use "Tropics Watch" to keep the public informed about the latest developments in the tropics, especially during peak hurricane season.

What is an "invest" in the context of hurricanes?

An "invest" refers to an area of disturbed weather that meteorologists are investigating for potential tropical development. The term "invest" is short for "investigation area."

When an area is designated as an invest, it is given a number (between 90 and 99) followed by the letter "L" for systems in the North Atlantic or "E" for systems in the Eastern Pacific. For example, "Invest 91L" would refer to the 91st area of interest in the Atlantic basin for that season.

The designation of an invest allows meteorologists to focus their resources on a specific area, utilize specialized forecasting models, and issue updates as needed.

What is a Tropical Depression?

A tropical depression is a type of tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of less than 39 mph (34 knots or 63 km/h).

Key characteristics:

  • Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms
  • Has a defined surface circulation
  • Lacks the wind intensity of stronger tropical cyclones
  • May eventually strengthen into a tropical storm if conditions are favorable

It's the first stage of development in the tropical cyclone classification used by the National Hurricane Center, followed by tropical storm and then hurricane.

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