The tropical weather discussion for November 15, 2025, covers the North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and the Atlantic Ocean. The monsoon trough and ITCZ are present, with scattered moderate convection noted in the Atlantic. High pressure over the Florida Panhandle is affecting wind patterns in the Gulf, creating moderate NE to E winds in the Yucatan Channel. Light to gentle anticyclonic flow dominates elsewhere, with seas generally 1 to 3 feet. Expected shifts in wind patterns and speeds are forecasted for the Gulf, especially by mid-next week.
In the Caribbean Sea, a stationary surface trough near the coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua, combined with the Pacific monsoon trough, is causing scattered moderate convection. Fresh winds and moderate seas are noted offshore central Colombia and Cuba, with gentle trade winds prevailing elsewhere. Changes in pressure gradients imply a period of calm trade winds starting early next week.
In the Atlantic Ocean, low pressure near 12N38W is creating widespread scattered convection, with a cold front causing moderate winds and varying sea heights throughout the region. NW winds are gentle to moderate, with a 1018 mb high-pressure system near 25N35W shaping wind flows east of the front. Wind and sea conditions are anticipated to experience further changes, particularly with the introduction of new cold fronts.
November 15, 2025, at 5:00 AM ESTThe National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025.
Named Storms: 13 to 19
Hurricanes: 6 to 10
Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher): 3 to 5
Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE): 95% to 180% of the median
This forecast indicates a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30Key: Active Past Future
*Press/click the storm name to view additional details2020 - 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes
Hurricane Katrina (2005) - $125 billion
Harvey (2017) - $125 billion
Hurricane Patricia (2015) - 215 mph (345 km/h)
Hurricane Allen (1980) - 190 mph (305 km/h)
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating system that classifies hurricanes based on their sustained wind speeds and the potential damage they can cause. It helps communicate the intensity of hurricanes and the likely impacts on structures and environments. The scale does not account for factors like storm surge or rainfall, focusing only on wind speeds.
Watching the Tropics was originally built as a personal storm tracker with only the most important charts for the Atlantic hurricane basin. Numerous sites are available for tracking hurricanes, but Watching the Tropics minimizes extra "noise" and shows only what you need.
Designed in Florida by
"Watching the tropics" refers to monitoring tropical weather systems, such as tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, in regions close to the equator. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts often use this phrase during hurricane season to indicate that they're keeping an eye on developing weather systems that could potentially strengthen and impact areas like the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean.
Websites, news outlets, or weather services also use "Tropics Watch" to keep the public informed about the latest developments in the tropics, especially during peak hurricane season.
An "invest" refers to an area of disturbed weather that meteorologists are investigating for potential tropical development. The term "invest" is short for "investigation area."
When an area is designated as an invest, it is given a number (between 90 and 99) followed by the letter "L" for systems in the North Atlantic or "E" for systems in the Eastern Pacific. For example, "Invest 91L" would refer to the 91st area of interest in the Atlantic basin for that season.
The designation of an invest allows meteorologists to focus their resources on a specific area, utilize specialized forecasting models, and issue updates as needed.
A tropical depression is a type of tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of less than 39 mph (34 knots or 63 km/h).
Key characteristics:
It's the first stage of development in the tropical cyclone classification used by the National Hurricane Center, followed by tropical storm and then hurricane.
