May 15, 2026, at 12:15 PM EDT
In the Gulf of America, continental high pressure of 1017 mb near Louisiana is influencing the region with light, gentle winds predominantly showing an anticyclonic pattern, except in the NW Gulf where moderate S winds are present. Seas range from 1 to 4 ft, with dry air prevailing and no notable convection. The high pressure will persist into early next week, increasing SE winds as low pressure develops over Texas.
In the Caribbean Sea, a weakening stationary front stretches from western Cuba to near Cozumel. Convection remains near Panama's coast due to the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough. E winds in the central and southern regions are strong, particularly off Colombia and Venezuela, producing rough seas. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades and gentle E winds are observed. The existing pressure gradient is expected to sustain current wind conditions, with the strongest in the Gulf of Honduras. Rough seas due to large W swell will impact the tropical N Atlantic into Monday.
Across the Atlantic Ocean, a weakening stationary front extends from west of Bermuda to the Florida Straits, with scattered moderate convection and fresh to strong SW winds causing rough seas. Behind the front, moderate to fresh winds prevail. N of 20N, moderate E winds and seas are observed, whereas S of 20N sees fresher trades and rougher seas. The stationary front will dissipate over the weekend, allowing wind and sea conditions to settle.
The 2026 Hurricane season starts on June 1, 2026 in
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025.
Named Storms: 13 to 19
Hurricanes: 6 to 10
Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher): 3 to 5
Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE): 95% to 180% of the median
This forecast indicates a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30Key: Active Past Future
*Press/click the storm name to view additional details2020 - 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes
Hurricane Katrina (2005) - $125 billion
Harvey (2017) - $125 billion
Hurricane Patricia (2015) - 215 mph (345 km/h)
Hurricane Allen (1980) - 190 mph (305 km/h)
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating system that classifies hurricanes based on their sustained wind speeds and the potential damage they can cause. It helps communicate the intensity of hurricanes and the likely impacts on structures and environments. The scale does not account for factors like storm surge or rainfall, focusing only on wind speeds.
Watching the Tropics was originally built as a personal storm tracker with only the most important charts for the Atlantic hurricane basin. Numerous sites are available for tracking hurricanes, but Watching the Tropics minimizes extra "noise" and shows only what you need.
Designed in Florida by
"Watching the tropics" refers to monitoring tropical weather systems, such as tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, in regions close to the equator. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts often use this phrase during hurricane season to indicate that they're keeping an eye on developing weather systems that could potentially strengthen and impact areas like the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean.
Websites, news outlets, or weather services also use "Tropics Watch" to keep the public informed about the latest developments in the tropics, especially during peak hurricane season.
An "invest" refers to an area of disturbed weather that meteorologists are investigating for potential tropical development. The term "invest" is short for "investigation area."
When an area is designated as an invest, it is given a number (between 90 and 99) followed by the letter "L" for systems in the North Atlantic or "E" for systems in the Eastern Pacific. For example, "Invest 91L" would refer to the 91st area of interest in the Atlantic basin for that season.
The designation of an invest allows meteorologists to focus their resources on a specific area, utilize specialized forecasting models, and issue updates as needed.
A tropical depression is a type of tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of less than 39 mph (34 knots or 63 km/h).
Key characteristics:
It's the first stage of development in the tropical cyclone classification used by the National Hurricane Center, followed by tropical storm and then hurricane.
