Watching the Tropics

Watching the Tropics is updated at 2AM, 5AM, 8AM, 11AM, 2PM, 5PM, 8PM, and 11PM daily
9/20/2026 2:03:59 AM
Atlantic Hurricane Basin Tracking Updates
Watching the Tropics tracks storms destined to the United States East coast, the Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico out of the Atlantic hurricane basin.
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Tropical Depression Six Tropical Depression Six

Advisory:
9/20/2026 3:00:00 AM
Location:
33.3, -33.2
Winds:
35 mph
Movement:
NNE at 5 mph
Pressure:
1007 mb

Tropical Depression Six is currently moving slowly north-northeastward with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph (55 km/h). Located about 475 miles southwest of the Azores, the depression is expected to continue moving northeast through Sunday and then turn eastward by Sunday night. A southwestward motion is anticipated to begin on Monday. Although some strengthening is possible, turning the depression into a tropical storm on Sunday, a weakening trend is expected by Monday. There are currently no coastal watches or warnings in effect, and no hazards are affecting land.

Tropical Depression Six - 3 Day Tropical Storm Winds
Tropical Depression Six - 3 Day Tropical Storm Winds
Tropical Depression Six - Current Wind
Tropical Depression Six - Current Wind
Storm Tropical Depression Six Spaghetti Models
Tropical Depression Six Spaghetti Models
Storm Tropical Depression Six Precipitation
Tropical Depression Six Precipitation
Storm Tropical Depression Six Thunderstorm Probability
Tropical Depression Six Thunderstorm Probability
Storm Tropical Depression Six wind speed projections
Tropical Depression Six Wind Speed Projections
Storm Tropical Depression Six wind speed history
Tropical Depression Six Wind Speed History
Storm Tropical Depression Six historical path
Tropical Depression Six Historical Path

Tropical Depression Six Status

The National Hurricane Center is closely monitoring a weather system in the Atlantic Ocean known as Invest 99L, which has a high potential to develop into Tropical Storm Fay. This disturbance has been showing signs of organization, with environmental conditions conducive for further strengthening. As it approaches warmer waters, meteorologists are predicting its transformation into a tropical storm within the next couple of days. The exact path of the storm remains uncertain, but projections indicate a likelihood of it curving away from the U.S. mainland.

Meanwhile, in the mid-Atlantic near the Azores, Tropical Depression Six has formed under the influence of a similar tropical wave. Weather experts are watching this system closely as it is also expected to become Tropical Storm Fay shortly. Although it is far from the Texas coast and away from any major landmass, there is heightened interest among meteorologists due to its potential development and any subsequent impacts on transatlantic maritime routes. While there is currently no direct threat to land, forecasters caution vigilance as conditions can rapidly evolve.

Invest 99L Invest 99L

Advisory:
9/19/2026 12:00:00 AM UTC
Location:
32.5, -33.6
Winds:
30 mph
Pressure:
1015 mb
Storm Invest 99L Spaghetti Models
Invest 99L Spaghetti Models
Storm Invest 99L Precipitation
Invest 99L Precipitation
Storm Invest 99L Thunderstorm Probability
Invest 99L Thunderstorm Probability
Storm Invest 99L wind speed projections
Invest 99L Wind Speed Projections
Storm Invest 99L wind speed history
Invest 99L Wind Speed History

Invest 99L Status

In developing weather news, Invest 99L is rapidly organizing and is expected to become the Atlantic's sixth named storm. This development is occurring amid a strengthening El Niño, which typically influences the Atlantic hurricane season. Meteorologists are closely monitoring the system's movement as it could gain further intensity and impact various regions. These atmospheric conditions underscore the need for continued vigilance in areas prone to extreme weather events.

Simultaneously, Florida is under close watch due to Invest 98L, with forecasts suggesting an increase in rain and thunderstorms. This system highlights the potential for disruptive weather patterns as it progresses. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Fernand is also being tracked for possible impacts on Florida, as this active tropical season unfolds. Weather experts emphasize preparedness, particularly in coastal regions, as these systems could bring significant weather challenges.

7 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
GOES 19
Sandwich Composite
Sandwich Composite
Today's Tornado Risk
Today's Tornado Risk
8-14 Day Temperature Outlook
8-14 Day Temperature Outlook
8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook
8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook
Global Tropics Hazard Outlook
Global Tropics Hazard Outlook
30 Day Coral Reef Watch
Current Atlantic and Gulf Radar
Current Atlantic and Gulf Winds

Atlantic Hurricane Basin Summary

September 20, 2026, at 5:00 AM EDT

The Tropical Weather Discussion from the NWS National Hurricane Center in Miami discusses several features across the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf regions. The key highlights include a central Atlantic tropical wave near 45W, and another one in the western Caribbean, both associated with scattered convection. The Gulf of America has a weak pressure gradient with a low-pressure area contributing to isolated showers.

In the Caribbean, moderate to fresh trades continue, influenced by a trough, and scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected. The Atlantic Ocean features several troughs with associated convection, while Tropical Depression Six is situated near the Azores, expected to move north-northeast.

2026 Hurricane Prediction

​NOAA's 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025.

  • Named Storms: 8 to 14

  • Hurricanes: 3 to 6

  • Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher): 1 to 3

  • Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE): 95% to 180% of the median

  • Primary Influencing Factor: Developing El Niño conditions expected to suppress Atlantic storm activity

This forecast indicates:

  • 55% chance of a below-normal season
  • 35% chance of a near-normal season
  • 10% chance of an above-normal season

Despite the lower forecast, NOAA emphasizes that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to create a major disaster, and residents in hurricane-prone areas should still prepare as usual for the season.

Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30

2026 Storm Names

Arthur- TS Bertha- TS Cristobal- TS Dolly- TS Edouard- TS Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulett Rene Sally Teddy Vicky Wilfred

Key: Active Past Future

*Press/click the storm name to view additional details

2025 Hurricane Summary

  • 13 named storms
  • 5 hurricanes
  • 4 major hurricanes (Cat. 3+)
  • Total damage: ~$9.4 billion
Notable Hurricanes
  • Hurricane Erin: In August, Erin rapidly intensified into a Category 5 hurricane over the Atlantic, becoming one of the strongest storms of the season. Although it remained offshore of the United States, it generated dangerous surf, coastal flooding, and massive waves along portions of the East Coast.
  • Hurricane Gabrielle: Gabrielle strengthened into a powerful Category 4 hurricane in September over the central Atlantic before transitioning into an extratropical system near Europe, bringing impacts to the Azores and parts of Spain.
  • Hurricane Humberto: Humberto became another Category 5 hurricane during the season but stayed over open Atlantic waters, contributing significantly to the season’s above-normal ACE despite limited land impacts
  • Hurricane Melissa: Melissa was the strongest storm of the 2025 Atlantic season, intensifying into a catastrophic Category 5 hurricane before making landfall in Jamaica near peak intensity. The storm caused widespread destruction across Jamaica and was later retired from the Atlantic naming list due to its severity.

Despite fewer total storms than forecasted, the 2025 season produced several extremely intense hurricanes, including three Category 5 systems, making it one of the more powerful Atlantic seasons in recent history.

Atlantic Hurricane Statistics

Named
Hurricanes
Major
Average
14.4
7.2
3.2
High
30
15
7
Low
4
2
0

Most Active Hurricane Season

2020 - 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes

Costliest Hurricanes

Hurricane Katrina (2005) - $125 billion

Harvey (2017) - $125 billion

Strongest Hurricanes (Based on Wind Speed)

Hurricane Patricia (2015) - 215 mph (345 km/h)

Hurricane Allen (1980) - 190 mph (305 km/h)

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale in MPH

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating system that classifies hurricanes based on their sustained wind speeds and the potential damage they can cause. It helps communicate the intensity of hurricanes and the likely impacts on structures and environments. The scale does not account for factors like storm surge or rainfall, focusing only on wind speeds.

About Watching the Tropics

Watching the Tropics was originally built as a personal storm tracker with only the most important charts for the Atlantic hurricane basin. Numerous sites are available for tracking hurricanes, but Watching the Tropics minimizes extra "noise" and shows only what you need.

Designed in Florida by

Dillaman Research DillaDev.com

What does Watching the Tropics mean?

"Watching the tropics" refers to monitoring tropical weather systems, such as tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, in regions close to the equator. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts often use this phrase during hurricane season to indicate that they're keeping an eye on developing weather systems that could potentially strengthen and impact areas like the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean.

Websites, news outlets, or weather services also use "Tropics Watch" to keep the public informed about the latest developments in the tropics, especially during peak hurricane season.

What is an "invest" in the context of hurricanes?

An "invest" refers to an area of disturbed weather that meteorologists are investigating for potential tropical development. The term "invest" is short for "investigation area."

When an area is designated as an invest, it is given a number (between 90 and 99) followed by the letter "L" for systems in the North Atlantic or "E" for systems in the Eastern Pacific. For example, "Invest 91L" would refer to the 91st area of interest in the Atlantic basin for that season.

The designation of an invest allows meteorologists to focus their resources on a specific area, utilize specialized forecasting models, and issue updates as needed.

What is a Tropical Depression?

A tropical depression is a type of tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of less than 39 mph (34 knots or 63 km/h).

Key characteristics:

  • Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms
  • Has a defined surface circulation
  • Lacks the wind intensity of stronger tropical cyclones
  • May eventually strengthen into a tropical storm if conditions are favorable

It's the first stage of development in the tropical cyclone classification used by the National Hurricane Center, followed by tropical storm and then hurricane.

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