Tropical weather activity is currently being observed across several regions. A tropical wave near 39W is generating scattered moderate convection from 05N to 10N between 33W and 43W. Another wave near 56W is causing scattered moderate convection south of 12N between 51W and 59W. A third wave near 81W in the Caribbean is associated with scattered moderate to isolated strong convection south of 15N and west of 80W.
In the Gulf of America, subtropical ridging prevails with a surface trough extending from near Tampa Bay to Mobile Bay, leading to scattered moderate convection across the northern Gulf. Generally, moderate or weaker winds are present, with slight seas in most areas except for 3 to 5 ft seas in the Bay of Campeche.
The central Caribbean experiences fresh to strong trade winds due to pressure differences between the subtropical ridge and low pressure over northern South America, resulting in 8 to 11 ft seas. This pattern is expected to intensify, with winds reaching near-gale force offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela during nighttime through the week.
The Atlantic subtropical ridge, anchored by a high pressure center, is leading to gentle to moderate breezes north of 22N and fresh trade winds with 5 to 7 ft seas to the south. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 23N and west of 65W, impacting areas including the Bahamas. This weather pattern will support moderate to fresh winds south of 23N, with strong nighttime winds north of Hispaniola and approaches to the Windward Passage through Friday night.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025.
Named Storms: 8 to 14
Hurricanes: 3 to 6
Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher): 1 to 3
Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE): 95% to 180% of the median
Primary Influencing Factor: Developing El Niño conditions expected to suppress Atlantic storm activity
This forecast indicates:
Despite the lower forecast, NOAA emphasizes that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to create a major disaster, and residents in hurricane-prone areas should still prepare as usual for the season.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30Key: Active Past Future
*Press/click the storm name to view additional detailsDespite fewer total storms than forecasted, the 2025 season produced several extremely intense hurricanes, including three Category 5 systems, making it one of the more powerful Atlantic seasons in recent history.
2020 - 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes
Hurricane Katrina (2005) - $125 billion
Harvey (2017) - $125 billion
Hurricane Patricia (2015) - 215 mph (345 km/h)
Hurricane Allen (1980) - 190 mph (305 km/h)
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating system that classifies hurricanes based on their sustained wind speeds and the potential damage they can cause. It helps communicate the intensity of hurricanes and the likely impacts on structures and environments. The scale does not account for factors like storm surge or rainfall, focusing only on wind speeds.
Watching the Tropics was originally built as a personal storm tracker with only the most important charts for the Atlantic hurricane basin. Numerous sites are available for tracking hurricanes, but Watching the Tropics minimizes extra "noise" and shows only what you need.
Designed in Florida by
"Watching the tropics" refers to monitoring tropical weather systems, such as tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, in regions close to the equator. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts often use this phrase during hurricane season to indicate that they're keeping an eye on developing weather systems that could potentially strengthen and impact areas like the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean.
Websites, news outlets, or weather services also use "Tropics Watch" to keep the public informed about the latest developments in the tropics, especially during peak hurricane season.
An "invest" refers to an area of disturbed weather that meteorologists are investigating for potential tropical development. The term "invest" is short for "investigation area."
When an area is designated as an invest, it is given a number (between 90 and 99) followed by the letter "L" for systems in the North Atlantic or "E" for systems in the Eastern Pacific. For example, "Invest 91L" would refer to the 91st area of interest in the Atlantic basin for that season.
The designation of an invest allows meteorologists to focus their resources on a specific area, utilize specialized forecasting models, and issue updates as needed.
A tropical depression is a type of tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of less than 39 mph (34 knots or 63 km/h).
Key characteristics:
It's the first stage of development in the tropical cyclone classification used by the National Hurricane Center, followed by tropical storm and then hurricane.
