May 14, 2026, at 2:15 AM EDT
A tropical wave is observed over the eastern Atlantic along 22W, south of 11N, moving westward at 10 kt with showers near the axis. Another wave along 41W, south of 13N, is moving westward at 10 kt but lacks significant convection except near the ITCZ.
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near Guinea-Bissau and continues southwestward, with scattered moderate convection south of 06N and west of 29W. The ITCZ extends with additional convection present.
In the Gulf of America, a weak stationary front extends from a low-pressure area near 31N77W to Florida and northern Yucatan with a few showers. The basin is under weak high pressure with moderate winds and slight seas, and a new cold front is expected to enter the NE Gulf by Thu night.
In the Caribbean, a high-pressure system brings fresh to strong easterly winds and 6-8 ft seas in the south-central area. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds continue, with conditions pulsing in the Gulf of Honduras during the weekend.
The Atlantic features a weak stationary front from a low near 31N77W to Florida, with convection north of 27N and fresh to strong southerly winds north of 28N between 65W and 75W. An extensive subtropical ridge generates moderate to fresh winds across other regions.
For the Atlantic forecast west of 55W, the stationary front off northeastern Florida will merge with a cold front by Thu, becoming stationary by late Sat as high pressure shifts. Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected north of 27N through Fri.
The 2026 Hurricane season starts on June 1, 2026 in
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025.
Named Storms: 13 to 19
Hurricanes: 6 to 10
Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher): 3 to 5
Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE): 95% to 180% of the median
This forecast indicates a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30Key: Active Past Future
*Press/click the storm name to view additional details2020 - 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes
Hurricane Katrina (2005) - $125 billion
Harvey (2017) - $125 billion
Hurricane Patricia (2015) - 215 mph (345 km/h)
Hurricane Allen (1980) - 190 mph (305 km/h)
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating system that classifies hurricanes based on their sustained wind speeds and the potential damage they can cause. It helps communicate the intensity of hurricanes and the likely impacts on structures and environments. The scale does not account for factors like storm surge or rainfall, focusing only on wind speeds.
Watching the Tropics was originally built as a personal storm tracker with only the most important charts for the Atlantic hurricane basin. Numerous sites are available for tracking hurricanes, but Watching the Tropics minimizes extra "noise" and shows only what you need.
Designed in Florida by
"Watching the tropics" refers to monitoring tropical weather systems, such as tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, in regions close to the equator. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts often use this phrase during hurricane season to indicate that they're keeping an eye on developing weather systems that could potentially strengthen and impact areas like the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean.
Websites, news outlets, or weather services also use "Tropics Watch" to keep the public informed about the latest developments in the tropics, especially during peak hurricane season.
An "invest" refers to an area of disturbed weather that meteorologists are investigating for potential tropical development. The term "invest" is short for "investigation area."
When an area is designated as an invest, it is given a number (between 90 and 99) followed by the letter "L" for systems in the North Atlantic or "E" for systems in the Eastern Pacific. For example, "Invest 91L" would refer to the 91st area of interest in the Atlantic basin for that season.
The designation of an invest allows meteorologists to focus their resources on a specific area, utilize specialized forecasting models, and issue updates as needed.
A tropical depression is a type of tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of less than 39 mph (34 knots or 63 km/h).
Key characteristics:
It's the first stage of development in the tropical cyclone classification used by the National Hurricane Center, followed by tropical storm and then hurricane.
