June 22, 2026, at 6:15 AM EDT
A tropical wave in the far eastern Atlantic along 15W is moving westward at 15 kt, with scattered moderate to strong convection observed from 02N to 10N and east of 28W. Another wave along 36W is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 04N to 10N, between 32W and 42W. A central Atlantic wave along 47W is moving westward at 15 kt with no significant convection. A Caribbean wave along 73W, moving westward at 15 kt, shows a few nearby showers.
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through Mauritania and extends to 03N41W.
In the Gulf of America, a subtropical ridge supports moderate to fresh southerly winds and moderate seas west of 90W. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate, with fresh to locally strong easterly winds off Yucatan, and moderate to fresh southerly winds over the western and central Gulf reducing to gentle to moderate speeds by tonight.
In the Caribbean Sea, a subtropical ridge is promoting fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate to rough seas. The strongest winds are off NW Colombia. Forecast indicates increased trade winds to near gale force across the central basin south of 15N starting tonight, with seas rising to 13 ft. The Lesser Antilles will also experience fresh to strong easterly winds and seas up to 9 ft.
In the Atlantic Ocean, a high-pressure system southwest of the Azores influences the trade winds, with moderate to locally strong easterly winds and seas of 4-8 ft south of 22N. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are located from 17N to 24N east of 25W. West of 55W, high pressure will lead to nightly pulsing of fresh to locally strong winds off northeastern Hispaniola, with seas potentially reaching 8 ft.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025.
Named Storms: 8 to 14
Hurricanes: 3 to 6
Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher): 1 to 3
Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE): 95% to 180% of the median
Primary Influencing Factor: Developing El Niño conditions expected to suppress Atlantic storm activity
This forecast indicates:
Despite the lower forecast, NOAA emphasizes that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to create a major disaster, and residents in hurricane-prone areas should still prepare as usual for the season.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30Key: Active Past Future
*Press/click the storm name to view additional detailsDespite fewer total storms than forecasted, the 2025 season produced several extremely intense hurricanes, including three Category 5 systems, making it one of the more powerful Atlantic seasons in recent history.
2020 - 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes
Hurricane Katrina (2005) - $125 billion
Harvey (2017) - $125 billion
Hurricane Patricia (2015) - 215 mph (345 km/h)
Hurricane Allen (1980) - 190 mph (305 km/h)
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating system that classifies hurricanes based on their sustained wind speeds and the potential damage they can cause. It helps communicate the intensity of hurricanes and the likely impacts on structures and environments. The scale does not account for factors like storm surge or rainfall, focusing only on wind speeds.
Watching the Tropics was originally built as a personal storm tracker with only the most important charts for the Atlantic hurricane basin. Numerous sites are available for tracking hurricanes, but Watching the Tropics minimizes extra "noise" and shows only what you need.
Designed in Florida by
"Watching the tropics" refers to monitoring tropical weather systems, such as tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, in regions close to the equator. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts often use this phrase during hurricane season to indicate that they're keeping an eye on developing weather systems that could potentially strengthen and impact areas like the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean.
Websites, news outlets, or weather services also use "Tropics Watch" to keep the public informed about the latest developments in the tropics, especially during peak hurricane season.
An "invest" refers to an area of disturbed weather that meteorologists are investigating for potential tropical development. The term "invest" is short for "investigation area."
When an area is designated as an invest, it is given a number (between 90 and 99) followed by the letter "L" for systems in the North Atlantic or "E" for systems in the Eastern Pacific. For example, "Invest 91L" would refer to the 91st area of interest in the Atlantic basin for that season.
The designation of an invest allows meteorologists to focus their resources on a specific area, utilize specialized forecasting models, and issue updates as needed.
A tropical depression is a type of tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of less than 39 mph (34 knots or 63 km/h).
Key characteristics:
It's the first stage of development in the tropical cyclone classification used by the National Hurricane Center, followed by tropical storm and then hurricane.
