Invest 94L
Weather experts are closely monitoring two tropical systems, designated as Invest 92L and Invest 94L, as they progress through the Atlantic. As of mid-August, both systems have displayed low chances of development into significant weather events. Although the potential for these disturbances to evolve remains low, meteorologists are not dismissing the possibility of strengthened activity, particularly as the systems move closer to regions that could be affected, including Florida. There is a consensus among forecasters that while the risk remains minimal, vigilance is necessary.
In a related development, Tropical Storm LaLa is approaching Hawaii but is not expected to pose a severe threat. Current projections suggest that any impacts, if at all, on the Hawaiian Islands would be limited to heightened rain levels and increased surf. Meanwhile, Florida remains in a state of cautious observation as meteorological models continue to assess the potential paths of the Atlantic disturbances. Residents are advised to stay informed as any changes in trajectory or intensity could warrant concern.
August 16, 2026, at 6:15 AM EDT
Caribbean Gale Warning: Gale-force northeast to east winds persist off Colombia due to a tightened pressure gradient between surface ridging over the western Atlantic and lower pressure in northern South America. Rough seas up to 15 ft are expected near and downwind of these winds. For further details, consult the latest High Seas Forecast at the National Hurricane Center's website.
Heavy Precipitation in South Central America and Colombia: Two tropical waves will affect Central America, interacting with enhanced divergence aloft and an active monsoon trough. Expect heavy precipitation in Costa Rica, the Darien region of Panama, and Choco-Colombia. The second wave will increase moisture in Colombia and moisture flow into the eastern part of Costa Rica, leading to heavy rainfall, particularly in these areas, from Sunday into Monday.
A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave along 30W is moving west with scattered convection. Another tropical wave is along 45W with scattered showers, while an eastern Caribbean wave along 67W shows scattered moderate convection. The northern extension of a tropical wave along 87W has convection confined to the EPAC waters.
In the Gulf of Mexico, high pressure supports gentle to moderate winds, with fresh winds near the Yucatan. This pattern will continue, with slight to moderate seas expected.
In the Caribbean, fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas prevail south of 18N. The weather system is expected to generate fresh to strong winds and heavy rain, impacting the eastern and central Caribbean as it moves toward the NW part of the basin.
In the Atlantic, high pressure persists with fresh northeast winds along the coast of western Sahara and through the Canary Islands. Another forecast anticipates fresh to strong winds due to the Bermuda-Azores High and arriving tropical waves. A cold front will push east of 70W, affecting the northern forecast border, with associated winds and rainfall.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025.
Named Storms: 8 to 14
Hurricanes: 3 to 6
Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher): 1 to 3
Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE): 95% to 180% of the median
Primary Influencing Factor: Developing El Niño conditions expected to suppress Atlantic storm activity
This forecast indicates:
Despite the lower forecast, NOAA emphasizes that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to create a major disaster, and residents in hurricane-prone areas should still prepare as usual for the season.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30Key: Active Past Future
*Press/click the storm name to view additional detailsDespite fewer total storms than forecasted, the 2025 season produced several extremely intense hurricanes, including three Category 5 systems, making it one of the more powerful Atlantic seasons in recent history.
2020 - 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes
Hurricane Katrina (2005) - $125 billion
Harvey (2017) - $125 billion
Hurricane Patricia (2015) - 215 mph (345 km/h)
Hurricane Allen (1980) - 190 mph (305 km/h)
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating system that classifies hurricanes based on their sustained wind speeds and the potential damage they can cause. It helps communicate the intensity of hurricanes and the likely impacts on structures and environments. The scale does not account for factors like storm surge or rainfall, focusing only on wind speeds.
Watching the Tropics was originally built as a personal storm tracker with only the most important charts for the Atlantic hurricane basin. Numerous sites are available for tracking hurricanes, but Watching the Tropics minimizes extra "noise" and shows only what you need.
Designed in Florida by
"Watching the tropics" refers to monitoring tropical weather systems, such as tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, in regions close to the equator. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts often use this phrase during hurricane season to indicate that they're keeping an eye on developing weather systems that could potentially strengthen and impact areas like the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean.
Websites, news outlets, or weather services also use "Tropics Watch" to keep the public informed about the latest developments in the tropics, especially during peak hurricane season.
An "invest" refers to an area of disturbed weather that meteorologists are investigating for potential tropical development. The term "invest" is short for "investigation area."
When an area is designated as an invest, it is given a number (between 90 and 99) followed by the letter "L" for systems in the North Atlantic or "E" for systems in the Eastern Pacific. For example, "Invest 91L" would refer to the 91st area of interest in the Atlantic basin for that season.
The designation of an invest allows meteorologists to focus their resources on a specific area, utilize specialized forecasting models, and issue updates as needed.
A tropical depression is a type of tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of less than 39 mph (34 knots or 63 km/h).
Key characteristics:
It's the first stage of development in the tropical cyclone classification used by the National Hurricane Center, followed by tropical storm and then hurricane.
