A tropical wave is currently located in the eastern Atlantic around 17W/18W, moving very slowly with some potential repositioning needed based on future data. In the central Atlantic, another wave near 50W is moving westward with some convection noted. A Caribbean wave near 77W is merging with a low-pressure system over Colombia, causing convection over land but not at sea. The monsoon trough and ITCZ are showing scattered moderate convection in their respective areas.
In the Gulf of America, a surface ridge extends from the Florida Panhandle to the western Gulf, causing gentle winds and low seas in the eastern portion, while moderate to fresh southeast winds prevail in the west. The forecast indicates continuing moderate to fresh winds due to pressure gradients, particularly off the northwest Yucatan peninsula.
The Caribbean Sea is experiencing fresh to strong northeast to east winds due to a pressure gradient between a surface ridge and a low over western Panama. This is leading to higher seas in the central basin. Expect these conditions to persist through Tuesday night, with rough seas due to large swells impacting the tropical Atlantic waters until Tuesday.
In the Atlantic Ocean, a surface trough extends from 31N59W to the Central Bahamas, generating scattered moderate convection. Broad ridging dominated by a high-pressure system is creating mainly gentle winds north of 29N, while moderate to fresh trades and varying sea conditions prevail elsewhere. The high pressure will maintain these conditions, with a weak frontal remnant trough expected to dissipate, resulting in stable marine conditions through mid-week.
May 17, 2026, at 6:15 PM EDTThe 2026 Hurricane season starts on June 1, 2026 in
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025.
Named Storms: 13 to 19
Hurricanes: 6 to 10
Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher): 3 to 5
Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE): 95% to 180% of the median
This forecast indicates a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30Key: Active Past Future
*Press/click the storm name to view additional details2020 - 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes
Hurricane Katrina (2005) - $125 billion
Harvey (2017) - $125 billion
Hurricane Patricia (2015) - 215 mph (345 km/h)
Hurricane Allen (1980) - 190 mph (305 km/h)
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating system that classifies hurricanes based on their sustained wind speeds and the potential damage they can cause. It helps communicate the intensity of hurricanes and the likely impacts on structures and environments. The scale does not account for factors like storm surge or rainfall, focusing only on wind speeds.
Watching the Tropics was originally built as a personal storm tracker with only the most important charts for the Atlantic hurricane basin. Numerous sites are available for tracking hurricanes, but Watching the Tropics minimizes extra "noise" and shows only what you need.
Designed in Florida by
"Watching the tropics" refers to monitoring tropical weather systems, such as tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, in regions close to the equator. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts often use this phrase during hurricane season to indicate that they're keeping an eye on developing weather systems that could potentially strengthen and impact areas like the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean.
Websites, news outlets, or weather services also use "Tropics Watch" to keep the public informed about the latest developments in the tropics, especially during peak hurricane season.
An "invest" refers to an area of disturbed weather that meteorologists are investigating for potential tropical development. The term "invest" is short for "investigation area."
When an area is designated as an invest, it is given a number (between 90 and 99) followed by the letter "L" for systems in the North Atlantic or "E" for systems in the Eastern Pacific. For example, "Invest 91L" would refer to the 91st area of interest in the Atlantic basin for that season.
The designation of an invest allows meteorologists to focus their resources on a specific area, utilize specialized forecasting models, and issue updates as needed.
A tropical depression is a type of tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of less than 39 mph (34 knots or 63 km/h).
Key characteristics:
It's the first stage of development in the tropical cyclone classification used by the National Hurricane Center, followed by tropical storm and then hurricane.
