May 30, 2026, at 5:00 AM EDT
A cold front is moving across the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda, supported by a tight pressure gradient that will create gale force winds south-southeast of Bermuda near 30N63W early on Sunday. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas, along with scattered thunderstorms, are expected mainly along and ahead of the front north of 26N, with improvements seen by Monday as high pressure builds in. A few tropical waves are noted across the Atlantic, but significant convection is limited to specific areas near these waves.
In the Gulf of America, a sharp upper level trough interacting with a surface trough is causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, while moderate winds prevail, with stronger winds near thunderstorms. E to SE winds will continue through the mid-week, with occasional fresh winds off the northern Yucatan and in the central Gulf.
The Caribbean Sea sees limited significant convection, with fresh to strong easterly trade winds and seas of 5-8 ft in the south-central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh breezes elsewhere. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will expand across the central Caribbean by Tuesday and Wednesday as an Atlantic ridge builds.
In the Atlantic Ocean, a low pressure area off northeast Florida is along a stationary front. Fresh to strong SW winds and 7 to 9 ft seas occur within 300 nm east of the front, north of 28N. A large area of Saharan dust is noted east of 50W. As the low pressure system moves eastward, stronger winds and rough seas will follow, with gale-force winds south of Bermuda expected by Sunday afternoon. A second low pressure and front may move by late Monday.
The 2026 Hurricane season starts on June 1, 2026 in
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025.
Named Storms: 8 to 14
Hurricanes: 3 to 6
Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher): 1 to 3
Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE): 95% to 180% of the median
Primary Influencing Factor: Developing El Niño conditions expected to suppress Atlantic storm activity
This forecast indicates:
Despite the lower forecast, NOAA emphasizes that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to create a major disaster, and residents in hurricane-prone areas should still prepare as usual for the season.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30Key: Active Past Future
*Press/click the storm name to view additional detailsDespite fewer total storms than forecasted, the 2025 season produced several extremely intense hurricanes, including three Category 5 systems, making it one of the more powerful Atlantic seasons in recent history.
2020 - 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes
Hurricane Katrina (2005) - $125 billion
Harvey (2017) - $125 billion
Hurricane Patricia (2015) - 215 mph (345 km/h)
Hurricane Allen (1980) - 190 mph (305 km/h)
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating system that classifies hurricanes based on their sustained wind speeds and the potential damage they can cause. It helps communicate the intensity of hurricanes and the likely impacts on structures and environments. The scale does not account for factors like storm surge or rainfall, focusing only on wind speeds.
Watching the Tropics was originally built as a personal storm tracker with only the most important charts for the Atlantic hurricane basin. Numerous sites are available for tracking hurricanes, but Watching the Tropics minimizes extra "noise" and shows only what you need.
Designed in Florida by
"Watching the tropics" refers to monitoring tropical weather systems, such as tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, in regions close to the equator. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts often use this phrase during hurricane season to indicate that they're keeping an eye on developing weather systems that could potentially strengthen and impact areas like the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean.
Websites, news outlets, or weather services also use "Tropics Watch" to keep the public informed about the latest developments in the tropics, especially during peak hurricane season.
An "invest" refers to an area of disturbed weather that meteorologists are investigating for potential tropical development. The term "invest" is short for "investigation area."
When an area is designated as an invest, it is given a number (between 90 and 99) followed by the letter "L" for systems in the North Atlantic or "E" for systems in the Eastern Pacific. For example, "Invest 91L" would refer to the 91st area of interest in the Atlantic basin for that season.
The designation of an invest allows meteorologists to focus their resources on a specific area, utilize specialized forecasting models, and issue updates as needed.
A tropical depression is a type of tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of less than 39 mph (34 knots or 63 km/h).
Key characteristics:
It's the first stage of development in the tropical cyclone classification used by the National Hurricane Center, followed by tropical storm and then hurricane.
