Invest 99L
A recent tropical disturbance has been gaining attention, sitting less than 700 miles east of the Windward Islands in the Atlantic Ocean. Forecasters predict a 70% chance of this system developing into a tropical depression within the next 48 hours. Currently moving west at 15 mph, the disturbance is expected to bring rain and gusty winds to parts of the Caribbean over the coming days as it progresses. This system poses a significant threat, keeping meteorologists vigilant as it may intensify further under favorable conditions.
At the same time, Tropical Storm Fernand has formed and is being monitored closely for its potential impact on Florida. Moving at a speed of 17 mph with sustained winds of 40 mph, Fernand is expected to continue on its path towards the United States. Authorities are advising residents in affected areas to stay informed and prepared, as the storm could bring heavy rainfall and strong winds. The National Hurricane Center is actively tracking these systems, providing updates to ensure public safety and readiness.
Invest 98L
In the central Atlantic, meteorologists have identified a developing weather system known as Invest 98L, which is exhibiting increased chances of tropical cyclogenesis. This system is being closely monitored as it is influenced by the ongoing phase of a strong El Niño, which impacts oceanic and atmospheric conditions conducive to storm development. The brewing super El Niño, a periodic climate phenomenon known for warming surface ocean waters in the equatorial Pacific, affects weather patterns worldwide, including the potential strengthening and increased occurrence of Atlantic storms. Forecasters are assessing the likelihood of this disturbance developing into a named tropical storm as it moves slowly over the warm waters of the Atlantic.
Additionally, another area of interest, tagged as Invest 99L, is being observed for potential development, further contributing to an active Atlantic hurricane season. This disturbance is located in a different part of the Atlantic and is also being influenced by the current El Niño conditions. Forecast models suggest varying scenarios for these systems, with possibilities ranging from benign dissipation to potential tropical cyclone formation. As these systems evolve, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to provide frequent updates, emphasizing the importance of preparedness in affected regions.
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N is ongoing. Based on surface analysis and satellite imagery, a central Atlantic tropical wave is moving westward with convection noted between 38W and 44W. A western Caribbean tropical wave is generating scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 13N to 20N between 77W and 85W, affecting areas near the Cayman Islands and parts of Costa Rica and Panama.
In the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ area, a monsoon trough extends through the Atlantic and interacts with surface troughs leading to scattered moderate to strong convection observed in certain regions. A low-pressure area and accompanying trough are causing increased weather activity along these zones.
In the Gulf of America, surface troughs are impacting weather patterns, leading to isolated showers and thunderstorms. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas are prevalent in some areas. A ridge is expected to dominate with gentle to moderate winds persisting, though increased thunderstorms might develop due to an upper-level low moving into the NE Gulf.
In the Caribbean Sea, the pressure gradient between a high pressure north and lower pressure in northern South America is causing fresh to strong trades and moderate to rough seas over the central Caribbean. These conditions will ease as the pressure gradient relaxes.
In the Atlantic Ocean, remnants of a frontal trough and upper-level disturbances are generating moderate convection in certain areas, with a weak pressure gradient leading to generally moderate winds. Seas range from 3-7 ft across different areas. Expect high pressure to dominate, leading to mostly light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas, but with continued potential for scattered thunderstorms over part of the region.
September 19, 2026, at 2:15 AM EDTThe National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025.
Named Storms: 8 to 14
Hurricanes: 3 to 6
Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher): 1 to 3
Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE): 95% to 180% of the median
Primary Influencing Factor: Developing El Niño conditions expected to suppress Atlantic storm activity
This forecast indicates:
Despite the lower forecast, NOAA emphasizes that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to create a major disaster, and residents in hurricane-prone areas should still prepare as usual for the season.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30Key: Active Past Future
*Press/click the storm name to view additional detailsDespite fewer total storms than forecasted, the 2025 season produced several extremely intense hurricanes, including three Category 5 systems, making it one of the more powerful Atlantic seasons in recent history.
2020 - 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes
Hurricane Katrina (2005) - $125 billion
Harvey (2017) - $125 billion
Hurricane Patricia (2015) - 215 mph (345 km/h)
Hurricane Allen (1980) - 190 mph (305 km/h)
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating system that classifies hurricanes based on their sustained wind speeds and the potential damage they can cause. It helps communicate the intensity of hurricanes and the likely impacts on structures and environments. The scale does not account for factors like storm surge or rainfall, focusing only on wind speeds.
Watching the Tropics was originally built as a personal storm tracker with only the most important charts for the Atlantic hurricane basin. Numerous sites are available for tracking hurricanes, but Watching the Tropics minimizes extra "noise" and shows only what you need.
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"Watching the tropics" refers to monitoring tropical weather systems, such as tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, in regions close to the equator. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts often use this phrase during hurricane season to indicate that they're keeping an eye on developing weather systems that could potentially strengthen and impact areas like the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean.
Websites, news outlets, or weather services also use "Tropics Watch" to keep the public informed about the latest developments in the tropics, especially during peak hurricane season.
An "invest" refers to an area of disturbed weather that meteorologists are investigating for potential tropical development. The term "invest" is short for "investigation area."
When an area is designated as an invest, it is given a number (between 90 and 99) followed by the letter "L" for systems in the North Atlantic or "E" for systems in the Eastern Pacific. For example, "Invest 91L" would refer to the 91st area of interest in the Atlantic basin for that season.
The designation of an invest allows meteorologists to focus their resources on a specific area, utilize specialized forecasting models, and issue updates as needed.
A tropical depression is a type of tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of less than 39 mph (34 knots or 63 km/h).
Key characteristics:
It's the first stage of development in the tropical cyclone classification used by the National Hurricane Center, followed by tropical storm and then hurricane.
