Tropical Depression Two
Tropical Depression Two is currently drifting erratically northwestward and is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm either this afternoon or tonight. At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the depression was located at 28.6N 85.6W, approximately 110 miles south of Panama City, Florida and 210 miles southeast of Mobile, Alabama, with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. A slow northwestward motion is expected through tonight, eventually turning west-northwest or west, moving the depression near or along the northern Gulf coast in the coming days.
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from the Alabama/Florida Border to the Mouth of the Mississippi River, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in place from the Ochlockonee River, Florida westward to the Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish border in Louisiana. Storm surge and tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas in the next 48 hours, necessitating monitoring of local National Weather Service updates.
The tropical depression may produce rainfall amounts from 2 to 4 inches, with possible isolated totals reaching 8 inches along the Gulf Coast into adjacent inland regions, potentially causing flash flooding. Additionally, isolated tornadoes might occur in the Florida Big Bend region today, and swells are affecting parts of the Gulf coast of Florida, which could lead to life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Tropical Depression Two has formed in the Gulf of Mexico, with meteorologists predicting that it could strengthen into a tropical storm later in the day. The system is currently bringing heavy rains and storms to Central Florida, and it is expected to continue on a path that will impact various regions across the southeastern United States. Forecasters are closely monitoring the depression's progression to provide accurate predictions regarding its intensity and trajectory. As it moves, it is likely to receive the designation Tropical Storm Bertha once it reaches the necessary criteria for a tropical storm classification.
As the tropical depression advances, Texas is identified as a likely area to encounter its effects later in the week. Despite the current predictions, there remains some uncertainty about the exact track and potential impact of the storm, prompting officials and residents in affected areas to stay vigilant. The Gulf's warm waters are known to fuel storm development, which could potentially lead to intensification. Continuous updates from meteorologists will help communities in the forecasted path prepare adequately for potential severe weather conditions.
Invest 91L
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has been closely monitoring a system over the Gulf of Mexico, identified as Invest 91L, which has potential to develop into Tropical Storm Bertha. Over recent days, spaghetti models have shown a range of possible paths, but many predict the system could impact areas of Florida. Meteorologists continue to analyze data as models have shown varying predictions, with some suggesting landfall while others anticipate it remaining offshore. The NHC urges residents of potentially affected areas to stay informed as the system evolves.
Invest 91L, often referred to as the "Gulf Blob," has sparked significant interest due to favorable conditions that could lead to its intensification. It is currently producing heavy rain and increased wind activity, which are typical precursors to the formation of a tropical depression or storm. Weather experts are particularly attentive to changes in atmospheric pressure and ocean temperatures, which could fuel its development into Bertha. Public awareness campaigns have been launched to ensure communities are prepared for potential adverse weather conditions, emphasizing the need for readiness amidst hurricane season uncertainties.
Tropical Depression Two is currently located near 28.5N 85.6W, about 100 nautical miles south of Panama City, Florida. It is moving northwest at 3 knots with a central pressure of 1007 mb and maximum sustained wind speeds of 30 knots. Strong winds are causing 9-foot peak seas in the northeast quadrant. The system is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm by tonight and could reach southeastern Louisiana in two to three days. The depression is causing swells along Florida's Gulf Coast, which could lead to life-threatening surf and rip currents. Flooding from storm surge and tides is also a concern near coastal areas. Detailed updates are available on the National Hurricane Center's website.
An Eastern Atlantic tropical wave is nearing the Cabo Verde Islands, showing scattered moderate convection. A Central Atlantic wave, accompanied by dry Saharan air, shows no convection. In the Caribbean, a wave along 72W near Haiti does not currently show significant convection.
In the Gulf of America, Tropical Depression Two's influence is predominant, with high pressure resulting in gentle winds elsewhere. The depression is forecasted to evolve into a tropical storm, moving to 28.9N 86.5W by Tuesday morning and 29.5N 89.5W by Wednesday evening, eventually weakening by Friday.
The Caribbean Sea features fresh easterly trade winds with 7 to 9-foot seas. The Atlantic ridge is interacting with a Colombian low, causing stronger winds near Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate winds and seas are observed elsewhere.
In the Atlantic Ocean, surface troughs from an upper-level low are causing scattered moderate convection. Northeast of these troughs, moderate to fresh NE winds are present under a tighter pressure gradient with a subtropical ridge. Moderate trades dominate between 15N and 30N east of 45W.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025.
Named Storms: 8 to 14
Hurricanes: 3 to 6
Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher): 1 to 3
Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE): 95% to 180% of the median
Primary Influencing Factor: Developing El Niño conditions expected to suppress Atlantic storm activity
This forecast indicates:
Despite the lower forecast, NOAA emphasizes that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to create a major disaster, and residents in hurricane-prone areas should still prepare as usual for the season.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30Key: Active Past Future
*Press/click the storm name to view additional detailsDespite fewer total storms than forecasted, the 2025 season produced several extremely intense hurricanes, including three Category 5 systems, making it one of the more powerful Atlantic seasons in recent history.
2020 - 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes
Hurricane Katrina (2005) - $125 billion
Harvey (2017) - $125 billion
Hurricane Patricia (2015) - 215 mph (345 km/h)
Hurricane Allen (1980) - 190 mph (305 km/h)
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating system that classifies hurricanes based on their sustained wind speeds and the potential damage they can cause. It helps communicate the intensity of hurricanes and the likely impacts on structures and environments. The scale does not account for factors like storm surge or rainfall, focusing only on wind speeds.
Watching the Tropics was originally built as a personal storm tracker with only the most important charts for the Atlantic hurricane basin. Numerous sites are available for tracking hurricanes, but Watching the Tropics minimizes extra "noise" and shows only what you need.
Designed in Florida by
"Watching the tropics" refers to monitoring tropical weather systems, such as tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, in regions close to the equator. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts often use this phrase during hurricane season to indicate that they're keeping an eye on developing weather systems that could potentially strengthen and impact areas like the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean.
Websites, news outlets, or weather services also use "Tropics Watch" to keep the public informed about the latest developments in the tropics, especially during peak hurricane season.
An "invest" refers to an area of disturbed weather that meteorologists are investigating for potential tropical development. The term "invest" is short for "investigation area."
When an area is designated as an invest, it is given a number (between 90 and 99) followed by the letter "L" for systems in the North Atlantic or "E" for systems in the Eastern Pacific. For example, "Invest 91L" would refer to the 91st area of interest in the Atlantic basin for that season.
The designation of an invest allows meteorologists to focus their resources on a specific area, utilize specialized forecasting models, and issue updates as needed.
A tropical depression is a type of tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of less than 39 mph (34 knots or 63 km/h).
Key characteristics:
It's the first stage of development in the tropical cyclone classification used by the National Hurricane Center, followed by tropical storm and then hurricane.
