Tropical Storm Arthur
Tropical Storm Arthur has developed near the Middle Texas coast and poses a risk of life-threatening flooding across parts of the Southeastern United States. As of 10:00 AM CDT, the storm is located about 40 miles ENE of Port O'Connor, Texas and 190 miles WSW of Lake Charles, Louisiana. Arthur is moving northeast at 9 mph with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. The minimum central pressure is 1001 mb.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from High Island, Texas to Morgan City, Louisiana, while a Tropical Storm Watch is active from Sargent, Texas to High Island, Texas. The expected rainfall totals could reach 5 to 10 inches, with isolated amounts up to 20 inches, potentially causing life-threatening flash flooding across the Mid and Upper Texas coasts, as well as parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle.
The storm surge could raise water levels 2-4 feet above ground from Port Bolivar, Texas to Morgan City, Louisiana. Additionally, life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely along the northwestern Gulf Coast. A couple of tornadoes are possible from the Upper Texas Coast into southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle through Thursday.
The next advisory will be issued at 1:00 PM CDT, with a complete update at 4:00 PM CDT.
Tropical Storm Arthur has formed in the Gulf of Mexico, prompting the issuance of storm watches along the Texas Gulf Coast and parts of Louisiana. Weather experts predict the storm will intensify as it moves northwest, potentially making landfall within the next few days. Coastal residents are being urged to remain vigilant and prepare for heavy rainfall, high winds, and possible flooding. Local authorities are coordinating response efforts and have begun advising residents in low-lying areas to make necessary precautions.
Various spaghetti models, which show different possible tracks for the storm, indicate that Arthur could impact a wide section of the Gulf Coast. As the storm intensifies, meteorologists are closely monitoring its path to provide accurate forecasts and warnings. In response, emergency management agencies are preparing resources to ensure public safety and minimize disruption. While the exact track is uncertain, residents are being reminded to stay informed through official updates and heed local advisories.
Invest 90L
A developing weather system, currently known as Invest 90L, has been stirring interest and concern as it shows increasing potential to escalate into a short-lived tropical storm, likely to be named Tropical Storm Arthur. Meteorologists are closely monitoring its progression in the Gulf of Mexico, where warm waters could contribute to its intensification. Spaghetti models, which are a compilation of various projected paths for the storm, indicate diverse trajectories that may affect different areas. There is a general consensus, however, that the system could bring significant rain and wind to parts of the Gulf Coast, particularly Georgia and Florida.
As the situation evolves, forecasters are issuing updates regarding potential impacts, emphasizing that residents in the projected path should stay vigilant. While the exact landfall location remains uncertain, the likelihood of heavy rainfall and localized flooding is becoming increasingly definite. The storm's development is a reminder of the crucial need for preparedness as the hurricane season progresses. Authorities in affected regions are likely to issue advisories and guidance, encouraging communities to take necessary precautions.
June 17, 2026, at 6:00 AM EDT
Potential Tropical Cyclone One is situated near the Texas coast, moving northeastward at 5 kt. Maximum sustained winds are at 25 kt, with gusts reaching 35 kt and peak seas around 9 ft. It is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm before making landfall along the eastern coast of Texas or Louisiana tonight. A Tropical Storm Warning is in place from Sabine Pass to Morgan City, anticipating tropical-storm-force winds today. The system will weaken as it moves further inland by tonight. Rainfall totals from 5 to 10 inches, with isolated areas receiving up to 20 inches, could cause dangerous flash flooding across parts of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle through Thursday.
A tropical wave is emerging off the west coast of Africa along 14W, moving westward; while another is located along 33W in the eastern Atlantic. Additional tropical waves are present along 55W in the Atlantic and 73W in the central Caribbean, enhancing shower and thunderstorm activity in these regions.
In the Gulf of America, moist southerly winds are contributing to strong convection in the NW Gulf waters. The Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to cause large and dangerous surf conditions along the northwestern Gulf Coast over the next couple of days, with diminishing conditions by late Friday through the weekend as weak high pressure takes over.
The Caribbean Sea experiences fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the central region, with showers moving across NW Colombia into the SW Caribbean. The Atlantic ridge north of the region will continue to maintain these conditions, with highest winds off the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Honduras, which will see near gale-force winds through Thursday night.
The Bermuda-Azores subtropical ridge influences the tropical Atlantic, resulting in moderate to fresh trade winds. A frontal trough is present in the mid-North Atlantic. This will maintain moderate to locally fresh trades south of 22N through Friday, with winds reducing slightly into Saturday. A weak frontal system offshore of the SE U.S. is anticipated to move into the Atlantic by early Saturday.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025.
Named Storms: 8 to 14
Hurricanes: 3 to 6
Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher): 1 to 3
Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE): 95% to 180% of the median
Primary Influencing Factor: Developing El Niño conditions expected to suppress Atlantic storm activity
This forecast indicates:
Despite the lower forecast, NOAA emphasizes that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to create a major disaster, and residents in hurricane-prone areas should still prepare as usual for the season.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30Key: Active Past Future
*Press/click the storm name to view additional detailsDespite fewer total storms than forecasted, the 2025 season produced several extremely intense hurricanes, including three Category 5 systems, making it one of the more powerful Atlantic seasons in recent history.
2020 - 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes
Hurricane Katrina (2005) - $125 billion
Harvey (2017) - $125 billion
Hurricane Patricia (2015) - 215 mph (345 km/h)
Hurricane Allen (1980) - 190 mph (305 km/h)
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating system that classifies hurricanes based on their sustained wind speeds and the potential damage they can cause. It helps communicate the intensity of hurricanes and the likely impacts on structures and environments. The scale does not account for factors like storm surge or rainfall, focusing only on wind speeds.
Watching the Tropics was originally built as a personal storm tracker with only the most important charts for the Atlantic hurricane basin. Numerous sites are available for tracking hurricanes, but Watching the Tropics minimizes extra "noise" and shows only what you need.
Designed in Florida by
"Watching the tropics" refers to monitoring tropical weather systems, such as tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, in regions close to the equator. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts often use this phrase during hurricane season to indicate that they're keeping an eye on developing weather systems that could potentially strengthen and impact areas like the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean.
Websites, news outlets, or weather services also use "Tropics Watch" to keep the public informed about the latest developments in the tropics, especially during peak hurricane season.
An "invest" refers to an area of disturbed weather that meteorologists are investigating for potential tropical development. The term "invest" is short for "investigation area."
When an area is designated as an invest, it is given a number (between 90 and 99) followed by the letter "L" for systems in the North Atlantic or "E" for systems in the Eastern Pacific. For example, "Invest 91L" would refer to the 91st area of interest in the Atlantic basin for that season.
The designation of an invest allows meteorologists to focus their resources on a specific area, utilize specialized forecasting models, and issue updates as needed.
A tropical depression is a type of tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of less than 39 mph (34 knots or 63 km/h).
Key characteristics:
It's the first stage of development in the tropical cyclone classification used by the National Hurricane Center, followed by tropical storm and then hurricane.
