Heavy Rainfall in the North Caribbean: A broad upper-level trough from the United States into the NW Caribbean, alongside deep moisture convergence at lower levels in the southern Caribbean, will lead to sustained moisture traveling to Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas over the next several days. Heavy rainfall due to low-level winds bringing moist onshore flow is expected, particularly along the southern coasts of east Cuba and Haiti through Sunday. The rainfall raises concerns for dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding.
Gulf of America: High pressure over the eastern United States is creating moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the Gulf region, along with slight to moderate seas. A low pressure forecast near the Bahamas will cause fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas over the eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits, from Friday night through early next week.
Caribbean Sea: Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are persisting over the north-central Caribbean and Windward Passage, attributed to an upper-level trough. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas east of 75W are expected, while fresh N to NE winds with growing seas west of 80W are anticipated by early next week as high pressure builds north of the area, leading to rough seas and large swell across the Yucatan Channel.
Atlantic Ocean: A 1011 mb low north of the area is linked to a trough that extends to 24N53W. Convection and fresh to strong southerly winds are present east of the trough, while large northerly swell from Post-Tropical Josephine north of the area is producing rough seas. A tightening pressure gradient is forecast to develop late Friday as high pressure strengthens over the western Atlantic, inducing widespread fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas, with gale-force winds expected north of 27N and west of 60W from Saturday night through Sunday night. Mariners are advised to avoid these hazardous marine conditions.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025.
Named Storms: 8 to 14
Hurricanes: 3 to 6
Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher): 1 to 3
Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE): 95% to 180% of the median
Primary Influencing Factor: Developing El Niño conditions expected to suppress Atlantic storm activity
This forecast indicates:
Despite the lower forecast, NOAA emphasizes that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to create a major disaster, and residents in hurricane-prone areas should still prepare as usual for the season.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30Key: Active Past Future
*Press/click the storm name to view additional detailsDespite fewer total storms than forecasted, the 2025 season produced several extremely intense hurricanes, including three Category 5 systems, making it one of the more powerful Atlantic seasons in recent history.
2020 - 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes
Hurricane Katrina (2005) - $125 billion
Harvey (2017) - $125 billion
Hurricane Patricia (2015) - 215 mph (345 km/h)
Hurricane Allen (1980) - 190 mph (305 km/h)
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating system that classifies hurricanes based on their sustained wind speeds and the potential damage they can cause. It helps communicate the intensity of hurricanes and the likely impacts on structures and environments. The scale does not account for factors like storm surge or rainfall, focusing only on wind speeds.
Watching the Tropics was originally built as a personal storm tracker with only the most important charts for the Atlantic hurricane basin. Numerous sites are available for tracking hurricanes, but Watching the Tropics minimizes extra "noise" and shows only what you need.
Designed in Florida by
"Watching the tropics" refers to monitoring tropical weather systems, such as tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, in regions close to the equator. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts often use this phrase during hurricane season to indicate that they're keeping an eye on developing weather systems that could potentially strengthen and impact areas like the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean.
Websites, news outlets, or weather services also use "Tropics Watch" to keep the public informed about the latest developments in the tropics, especially during peak hurricane season.
An "invest" refers to an area of disturbed weather that meteorologists are investigating for potential tropical development. The term "invest" is short for "investigation area."
When an area is designated as an invest, it is given a number (between 90 and 99) followed by the letter "L" for systems in the North Atlantic or "E" for systems in the Eastern Pacific. For example, "Invest 91L" would refer to the 91st area of interest in the Atlantic basin for that season.
The designation of an invest allows meteorologists to focus their resources on a specific area, utilize specialized forecasting models, and issue updates as needed.
A tropical depression is a type of tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of less than 39 mph (34 knots or 63 km/h).
Key characteristics:
It's the first stage of development in the tropical cyclone classification used by the National Hurricane Center, followed by tropical storm and then hurricane.
