July 2, 2026, at 2:15 PM EDT
A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is along 21W, moving west at 5 to 10 kt, with scattered moderate convection noted from 06N to 10N east of 24W. Another wave in the central Atlantic is along 53W, moving west at 15-20 kt, with scattered convection from 09N to 12N. A Caribbean wave is along 83W, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt, with convection south of 12N and west of 80W.
The monsoon trough stretches from Mauritania into the Atlantic, continuing to 06.5N35W, with the ITCZ extending to 09N52W. Scattered convection is from 05N to 11N between 24W and 42W. Weak high pressure in the Gulf of America supports moderate or lighter winds. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms occur over the Bay of Campeche and NE Gulf.
A tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and northern Colombia supports fresh to near gale-force easterly trade winds with 8-12 ft seas in the central to SW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are in the eastern Caribbean. The forecast suggests fresh to strong trade winds will continue, diminishing slightly through the weekend, with near-gale force winds offshore Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela at night. The SE Caribbean may experience active showers and thunderstorms Thursday night through Friday night.
In the Atlantic, a surface trough stretching from 31N74W to the NW Bahamas aids in scattered moderate convection, while a 1034 mb high pressure NE of the Azores extends a ridge. Moderate to fresh easterly winds with 4-8 ft seas are south of 24N and west of 35W. For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough will dissipate, with the Atlantic ridge weakly building westward into central Florida. Moderate to fresh E-SE trade winds and weaker winds are expected elsewhere, with fresh to strong winds near the coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico each late afternoon into the early evening.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025.
Named Storms: 8 to 14
Hurricanes: 3 to 6
Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher): 1 to 3
Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE): 95% to 180% of the median
Primary Influencing Factor: Developing El Niño conditions expected to suppress Atlantic storm activity
This forecast indicates:
Despite the lower forecast, NOAA emphasizes that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to create a major disaster, and residents in hurricane-prone areas should still prepare as usual for the season.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30Key: Active Past Future
*Press/click the storm name to view additional detailsDespite fewer total storms than forecasted, the 2025 season produced several extremely intense hurricanes, including three Category 5 systems, making it one of the more powerful Atlantic seasons in recent history.
2020 - 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes
Hurricane Katrina (2005) - $125 billion
Harvey (2017) - $125 billion
Hurricane Patricia (2015) - 215 mph (345 km/h)
Hurricane Allen (1980) - 190 mph (305 km/h)
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating system that classifies hurricanes based on their sustained wind speeds and the potential damage they can cause. It helps communicate the intensity of hurricanes and the likely impacts on structures and environments. The scale does not account for factors like storm surge or rainfall, focusing only on wind speeds.
Watching the Tropics was originally built as a personal storm tracker with only the most important charts for the Atlantic hurricane basin. Numerous sites are available for tracking hurricanes, but Watching the Tropics minimizes extra "noise" and shows only what you need.
Designed in Florida by
"Watching the tropics" refers to monitoring tropical weather systems, such as tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, in regions close to the equator. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts often use this phrase during hurricane season to indicate that they're keeping an eye on developing weather systems that could potentially strengthen and impact areas like the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean.
Websites, news outlets, or weather services also use "Tropics Watch" to keep the public informed about the latest developments in the tropics, especially during peak hurricane season.
An "invest" refers to an area of disturbed weather that meteorologists are investigating for potential tropical development. The term "invest" is short for "investigation area."
When an area is designated as an invest, it is given a number (between 90 and 99) followed by the letter "L" for systems in the North Atlantic or "E" for systems in the Eastern Pacific. For example, "Invest 91L" would refer to the 91st area of interest in the Atlantic basin for that season.
The designation of an invest allows meteorologists to focus their resources on a specific area, utilize specialized forecasting models, and issue updates as needed.
A tropical depression is a type of tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of less than 39 mph (34 knots or 63 km/h).
Key characteristics:
It's the first stage of development in the tropical cyclone classification used by the National Hurricane Center, followed by tropical storm and then hurricane.
