Hurricane Isaias
- Category 2
Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number 9 indicates that Isaias has intensified with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph. Preparations for storm surge and damaging winds should be completed immediately in the warning areas. As of 4:00 PM CDT, Isaias is located at 24.4N 89.3W, about 215 miles north of Progreso, Mexico and 325 miles south of the Mississippi River's mouth. The storm is moving northeast at 12 mph.
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Suwannee River, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Ocean Springs, MS to the Bay/Gulf County Line, FL. Tropical Storm Warnings have also been issued for areas including the Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish Line, LA to west of Ocean Springs, MS, and east of Bay/Gulf County Line to Aucilla River, FL.
Hurricane Isaias is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday. The storm is forecasted to turn north on Friday, passing north of the Yucatan Peninsula and making landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf Coast. Peak surges in several locations could reach between 2-7 ft higher than normal tide levels, creating life-threatening conditions. Additionally, the hurricane is predicted to bring heavy rainfall and potential flash flooding to southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and southwest Georgia.
Hurricane Isaias has become the first Atlantic hurricane of the 2026 season, intensifying as it approaches the U.S. Gulf Coast. Authorities are closely monitoring the storm's trajectory, which is expected to bring adverse weather conditions including gusts of up to 40 mph and more than three inches of rain in areas such as metro Atlanta. El Niño is influencing Isaias's path, adding complexity to forecasting efforts and prompting officials to issue warnings. Residents in affected zones are advised to stay vigilant and prepare for potential evacuations as the hurricane intensifies.
As Hurricane Isaias looms closer, communities along its projected path are bracing for impact, with storm shelters being opened to accommodate evacuees. Beach visitors are being urged to evacuate as high winds and heavy rainfall could lead to dangerous conditions and significant coastal damage. Preparations are underway across the Gulf Coast, with officials emphasizing the importance of adhering to safety guidelines and evacuation orders. The evolving situation demands attention as the storm could gain further strength, heightening the risks for those in its path.
October 8, 2026, at 1:15 PM EDT
Hurricane Isaias is currently located 150 nautical miles north of Progreso, Mexico, moving east-northeast at 9 knots with winds reaching 75 knots and gusts up to 90 knots. As it advances northward, it is forecasted to make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday. Swell from Isaias is impacting the Yucatan Peninsula and will extend to western Cuba, southeastern Mexico, and southwestern Florida, potentially causing life-threatening rip currents.
A tropical wave is situated in the eastern Atlantic and another in the central Caribbean, producing scattered strong thunderstorms. Moderate to strong winds and rough seas are being observed in these regions.
In the Gulf of America, fresh to strong winds are present due to the pressure gradient between high pressure over the southeastern U.S. and a frontal boundary in the eastern Gulf. Expect swells to extend northward toward the Gulf Coast following Hurricane Isaias's path. Over the weekend, weakened pressure gradients will result in moderate or weaker winds.
In the Caribbean Sea, a tropical wave near 75W is causing significant thunderstorm activity, particularly affecting Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. General winds are moderate to fresh due to a weak pressure gradient in the region.
The Atlantic displays a series of weather systems, including a stationary front near Bermuda, causing showers and moderate winds. High pressure to the southeast of Bermuda will drift westward, influencing wind patterns and pressure gradients. A new cold front is expected along the U.S. southeastern coast early next week.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025.
Named Storms: 8 to 14
Hurricanes: 3 to 6
Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher): 1 to 3
Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE): 95% to 180% of the median
Primary Influencing Factor: Developing El Niño conditions expected to suppress Atlantic storm activity
This forecast indicates:
Despite the lower forecast, NOAA emphasizes that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to create a major disaster, and residents in hurricane-prone areas should still prepare as usual for the season.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30Key: Active Past Future
*Press/click the storm name to view additional detailsDespite fewer total storms than forecasted, the 2025 season produced several extremely intense hurricanes, including three Category 5 systems, making it one of the more powerful Atlantic seasons in recent history.
2020 - 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes
Hurricane Katrina (2005) - $125 billion
Harvey (2017) - $125 billion
Hurricane Patricia (2015) - 215 mph (345 km/h)
Hurricane Allen (1980) - 190 mph (305 km/h)
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating system that classifies hurricanes based on their sustained wind speeds and the potential damage they can cause. It helps communicate the intensity of hurricanes and the likely impacts on structures and environments. The scale does not account for factors like storm surge or rainfall, focusing only on wind speeds.
Watching the Tropics was originally built as a personal storm tracker with only the most important charts for the Atlantic hurricane basin. Numerous sites are available for tracking hurricanes, but Watching the Tropics minimizes extra "noise" and shows only what you need.
Designed in Florida by
"Watching the tropics" refers to monitoring tropical weather systems, such as tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, in regions close to the equator. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts often use this phrase during hurricane season to indicate that they're keeping an eye on developing weather systems that could potentially strengthen and impact areas like the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean.
Websites, news outlets, or weather services also use "Tropics Watch" to keep the public informed about the latest developments in the tropics, especially during peak hurricane season.
An "invest" refers to an area of disturbed weather that meteorologists are investigating for potential tropical development. The term "invest" is short for "investigation area."
When an area is designated as an invest, it is given a number (between 90 and 99) followed by the letter "L" for systems in the North Atlantic or "E" for systems in the Eastern Pacific. For example, "Invest 91L" would refer to the 91st area of interest in the Atlantic basin for that season.
The designation of an invest allows meteorologists to focus their resources on a specific area, utilize specialized forecasting models, and issue updates as needed.
A tropical depression is a type of tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of less than 39 mph (34 knots or 63 km/h).
Key characteristics:
It's the first stage of development in the tropical cyclone classification used by the National Hurricane Center, followed by tropical storm and then hurricane.
