May 22, 2026, at 2:15 PM EDT
A tropical wave is progressing westward along 41W, with limited convection south of 11N. Another westward-moving tropical wave is observed across the central Caribbean at 78W. The monsoon trough emerges from Senegal into the Atlantic, continuing southwestward to 03N25W, while the ITCZ stretches from 03N25W to 03N50W with scattered moderate convection detected south of 03N. The Atlantic ridge supports moderate to fresh SE winds across Florida and the Gulf of America, where a cluster of showers and thunderstorms is noted. High pressure from the western Atlantic is expected to maintain a gentle to moderate wind flow across the Gulf, with scattered showers anticipated over the western Gulf through next week.
In the Caribbean Sea, fresh to strong trade winds create 6 to 8 ft seas, primarily due to the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and lower pressures in northern South America. Similar trades are present in the Gulf of Honduras, while moderate winds and slight to moderate seas dominate elsewhere in the region. Scattered showers affect parts of Cuba, with isolated showers across the basin. Fresh to strong trades are forecast to continue over the central Caribbean into next week.
In the Atlantic Ocean, a large upper-level low northeast of the Bahamas spurs showers and thunderstorms. A surface trough from 28N28.5W to 23N55.5W is analyzed near an old frontal boundary, while 1026 mb high pressure east of Bermuda influences the area. Fresh to locally strong NE winds affect regions from the W coast of Africa to the Cabo Verde Islands. Unsettled weather is expected near the Bahamas until early Saturday as a trough dissipates. A cold front is projected to push south across the eastern area on Sunday, with improved weather conditions forecasted towards late Tuesday.
The 2026 Hurricane season starts on June 1, 2026 in
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025.
Named Storms: 8 to 14
Hurricanes: 3 to 6
Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher): 1 to 3
Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE): 95% to 180% of the median
Primary Influencing Factor: Developing El Niño conditions expected to suppress Atlantic storm activity
This forecast indicates:
Despite the lower forecast, NOAA emphasizes that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to create a major disaster, and residents in hurricane-prone areas should still prepare as usual for the season.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30Key: Active Past Future
*Press/click the storm name to view additional detailsDespite fewer total storms than forecasted, the 2025 season produced several extremely intense hurricanes, including three Category 5 systems, making it one of the more powerful Atlantic seasons in recent history.
2020 - 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes
Hurricane Katrina (2005) - $125 billion
Harvey (2017) - $125 billion
Hurricane Patricia (2015) - 215 mph (345 km/h)
Hurricane Allen (1980) - 190 mph (305 km/h)
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating system that classifies hurricanes based on their sustained wind speeds and the potential damage they can cause. It helps communicate the intensity of hurricanes and the likely impacts on structures and environments. The scale does not account for factors like storm surge or rainfall, focusing only on wind speeds.
Watching the Tropics was originally built as a personal storm tracker with only the most important charts for the Atlantic hurricane basin. Numerous sites are available for tracking hurricanes, but Watching the Tropics minimizes extra "noise" and shows only what you need.
Designed in Florida by
"Watching the tropics" refers to monitoring tropical weather systems, such as tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, in regions close to the equator. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts often use this phrase during hurricane season to indicate that they're keeping an eye on developing weather systems that could potentially strengthen and impact areas like the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean.
Websites, news outlets, or weather services also use "Tropics Watch" to keep the public informed about the latest developments in the tropics, especially during peak hurricane season.
An "invest" refers to an area of disturbed weather that meteorologists are investigating for potential tropical development. The term "invest" is short for "investigation area."
When an area is designated as an invest, it is given a number (between 90 and 99) followed by the letter "L" for systems in the North Atlantic or "E" for systems in the Eastern Pacific. For example, "Invest 91L" would refer to the 91st area of interest in the Atlantic basin for that season.
The designation of an invest allows meteorologists to focus their resources on a specific area, utilize specialized forecasting models, and issue updates as needed.
A tropical depression is a type of tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of less than 39 mph (34 knots or 63 km/h).
Key characteristics:
It's the first stage of development in the tropical cyclone classification used by the National Hurricane Center, followed by tropical storm and then hurricane.
