October 27, 2026, at 12:15 AM EDT
Deep-layer troughing through the Bahamas into the northern Caribbean, along with abundant tropical moisture, is causing periods of heavy rainfall over Hispaniola, the southern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. The potential for dangerous flash flooding, especially in Haiti and the Dominican Republic, remains a concern. Mariners should be aware of a tight pressure gradient between a high-pressure area over the United States and a stationary front near Bermuda, causing strong NE winds and very rough seas up to 18 ft. Conditions are expected to persist through Wednesday.
In the Gulf of America, the pressure gradient caused by high pressure over the eastern United States is supporting fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas in the eastern Gulf, extending into the Florida Straits. This pattern is expected to continue into midweek before calming by the weekend. Moderate winds and seas are observed elsewhere.
A deep-layer trough is causing scattered moderate thunderstorms offshore of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico in the Caribbean Sea, along with moderate to locally fresh winds in some areas. This weather pattern will continue while a surface trough drifts west. Up to 8 ft seas are expected in the Yucatan Channel.
In the Atlantic Ocean, heavy rainfall is also affecting the southern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands with significant swell north of the Bahamas extending to Bermuda. Rough seas are present south of the stationary front. A surface front is expected to transition into a cold front by Thursday, causing persistent rough seas and fresh to strong winds north of the front.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025.
Named Storms: 8 to 14
Hurricanes: 3 to 6
Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher): 1 to 3
Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE): 95% to 180% of the median
Primary Influencing Factor: Developing El Niño conditions expected to suppress Atlantic storm activity
This forecast indicates:
Despite the lower forecast, NOAA emphasizes that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to create a major disaster, and residents in hurricane-prone areas should still prepare as usual for the season.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30Key: Active Past Future
*Press/click the storm name to view additional detailsDespite fewer total storms than forecasted, the 2025 season produced several extremely intense hurricanes, including three Category 5 systems, making it one of the more powerful Atlantic seasons in recent history.
2020 - 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes
Hurricane Katrina (2005) - $125 billion
Harvey (2017) - $125 billion
Hurricane Patricia (2015) - 215 mph (345 km/h)
Hurricane Allen (1980) - 190 mph (305 km/h)
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating system that classifies hurricanes based on their sustained wind speeds and the potential damage they can cause. It helps communicate the intensity of hurricanes and the likely impacts on structures and environments. The scale does not account for factors like storm surge or rainfall, focusing only on wind speeds.
Watching the Tropics was originally built as a personal storm tracker with only the most important charts for the Atlantic hurricane basin. Numerous sites are available for tracking hurricanes, but Watching the Tropics minimizes extra "noise" and shows only what you need.
Designed in Florida by
"Watching the tropics" refers to monitoring tropical weather systems, such as tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, in regions close to the equator. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts often use this phrase during hurricane season to indicate that they're keeping an eye on developing weather systems that could potentially strengthen and impact areas like the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean.
Websites, news outlets, or weather services also use "Tropics Watch" to keep the public informed about the latest developments in the tropics, especially during peak hurricane season.
An "invest" refers to an area of disturbed weather that meteorologists are investigating for potential tropical development. The term "invest" is short for "investigation area."
When an area is designated as an invest, it is given a number (between 90 and 99) followed by the letter "L" for systems in the North Atlantic or "E" for systems in the Eastern Pacific. For example, "Invest 91L" would refer to the 91st area of interest in the Atlantic basin for that season.
The designation of an invest allows meteorologists to focus their resources on a specific area, utilize specialized forecasting models, and issue updates as needed.
A tropical depression is a type of tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of less than 39 mph (34 knots or 63 km/h).
Key characteristics:
It's the first stage of development in the tropical cyclone classification used by the National Hurricane Center, followed by tropical storm and then hurricane.
