Tropical Weather Discussion from the National Hurricane Center in Miami focuses on North America, Central America, Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, and the Atlantic Ocean extending to the African coast. A tropical wave is identified near 39W, moving west at 15 to 20 kt with scattered showers near the axis. Another wave in the central Caribbean is influencing weather from Haiti to northern Colombia, causing some convective activity.
An upper-level low is impacting the Gulf of America, enhancing showers and thunderstorms, with a surface trough contributing to fresh east-southeast winds in the central and eastern Gulf. A weak cold front is expected this weekend, which may affect wind patterns in the NW and north-central Gulf. Behind the front, moderate northeast winds are predicted as strong high pressure builds south by midweek.
In the Caribbean Sea, the upper-level low affecting the Yucatan Peninsula is bringing moisture to the western Caribbean, with scattered storms in the Greater Antilles. Moderate to fresh trade winds are supported by high pressure. The forecast suggests active conditions may persist in the region, especially near Hispaniola, where heavy rain and strong thunderstorms are possible due to an evolving mid-upper level trough and local atmospheric conditions.
For the Atlantic Ocean, a trough northeast of Bermuda, remnants of former Tropical Storm Fay, shows reduced organization. The area is also influenced by a high-pressure ridge, with fresh winds near Hispaniola and moderate conditions elsewhere. There is potential for scattered showers in the west and a cold front to stall off NE Florida, leading to strong northeast winds and potentially near gale conditions by midweek.
October 2, 2026, at 7:15 PM EDTThe National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025.
Named Storms: 8 to 14
Hurricanes: 3 to 6
Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher): 1 to 3
Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE): 95% to 180% of the median
Primary Influencing Factor: Developing El Niño conditions expected to suppress Atlantic storm activity
This forecast indicates:
Despite the lower forecast, NOAA emphasizes that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to create a major disaster, and residents in hurricane-prone areas should still prepare as usual for the season.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30Key: Active Past Future
*Press/click the storm name to view additional detailsDespite fewer total storms than forecasted, the 2025 season produced several extremely intense hurricanes, including three Category 5 systems, making it one of the more powerful Atlantic seasons in recent history.
2020 - 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes
Hurricane Katrina (2005) - $125 billion
Harvey (2017) - $125 billion
Hurricane Patricia (2015) - 215 mph (345 km/h)
Hurricane Allen (1980) - 190 mph (305 km/h)
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating system that classifies hurricanes based on their sustained wind speeds and the potential damage they can cause. It helps communicate the intensity of hurricanes and the likely impacts on structures and environments. The scale does not account for factors like storm surge or rainfall, focusing only on wind speeds.
Watching the Tropics was originally built as a personal storm tracker with only the most important charts for the Atlantic hurricane basin. Numerous sites are available for tracking hurricanes, but Watching the Tropics minimizes extra "noise" and shows only what you need.
Designed in Florida by
"Watching the tropics" refers to monitoring tropical weather systems, such as tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, in regions close to the equator. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts often use this phrase during hurricane season to indicate that they're keeping an eye on developing weather systems that could potentially strengthen and impact areas like the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean.
Websites, news outlets, or weather services also use "Tropics Watch" to keep the public informed about the latest developments in the tropics, especially during peak hurricane season.
An "invest" refers to an area of disturbed weather that meteorologists are investigating for potential tropical development. The term "invest" is short for "investigation area."
When an area is designated as an invest, it is given a number (between 90 and 99) followed by the letter "L" for systems in the North Atlantic or "E" for systems in the Eastern Pacific. For example, "Invest 91L" would refer to the 91st area of interest in the Atlantic basin for that season.
The designation of an invest allows meteorologists to focus their resources on a specific area, utilize specialized forecasting models, and issue updates as needed.
A tropical depression is a type of tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of less than 39 mph (34 knots or 63 km/h).
Key characteristics:
It's the first stage of development in the tropical cyclone classification used by the National Hurricane Center, followed by tropical storm and then hurricane.
