August 6, 2026, at 2:15 PM EDT
The Caribbean is under a Gale Warning due to a developing pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and the Colombian low. This will result in increasing winds to near gale-force offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, particularly at night, with very rough seas expected over the weekend.
Currently, there are four notable tropical waves. The first is near 19W, stirring moderate convection between 15W and 22W. The second wave is along 38W, exhibiting moderate convection as it moves westward. A third tropical wave at 51W shows no significant activity yet, and the fourth wave is impacting northern Central America.
In the Gulf of America, high pressure from Bermuda is influencing a light to moderate anticyclonic flow, with some fresh winds expected around the Yucatan Peninsula. A surface trough moving from the western Atlantic across the Bahamas is predicted to increase showers over Florida on Friday.
The Caribbean continues to experience fresh to strong trade winds due to pressure differences between the Bermuda High and northern South America, with winds intensifying during the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are affecting areas around Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Windward Passage.
Three tropical waves progress across the Atlantic, typical for this period. A surface trough in the western Atlantic is causing thunderstorms near the Turks and Caicos Islands, with fresh to strong winds noted. High pressure near Bermuda maintains moderate to fresh winds across most of the area. Increased shower and storm activity is expected along with strong winds near the Bahamas into early Saturday.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025.
Named Storms: 8 to 14
Hurricanes: 3 to 6
Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher): 1 to 3
Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE): 95% to 180% of the median
Primary Influencing Factor: Developing El Niño conditions expected to suppress Atlantic storm activity
This forecast indicates:
Despite the lower forecast, NOAA emphasizes that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to create a major disaster, and residents in hurricane-prone areas should still prepare as usual for the season.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30Key: Active Past Future
*Press/click the storm name to view additional detailsDespite fewer total storms than forecasted, the 2025 season produced several extremely intense hurricanes, including three Category 5 systems, making it one of the more powerful Atlantic seasons in recent history.
2020 - 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes
Hurricane Katrina (2005) - $125 billion
Harvey (2017) - $125 billion
Hurricane Patricia (2015) - 215 mph (345 km/h)
Hurricane Allen (1980) - 190 mph (305 km/h)
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating system that classifies hurricanes based on their sustained wind speeds and the potential damage they can cause. It helps communicate the intensity of hurricanes and the likely impacts on structures and environments. The scale does not account for factors like storm surge or rainfall, focusing only on wind speeds.
Watching the Tropics was originally built as a personal storm tracker with only the most important charts for the Atlantic hurricane basin. Numerous sites are available for tracking hurricanes, but Watching the Tropics minimizes extra "noise" and shows only what you need.
Designed in Florida by
"Watching the tropics" refers to monitoring tropical weather systems, such as tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, in regions close to the equator. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts often use this phrase during hurricane season to indicate that they're keeping an eye on developing weather systems that could potentially strengthen and impact areas like the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean.
Websites, news outlets, or weather services also use "Tropics Watch" to keep the public informed about the latest developments in the tropics, especially during peak hurricane season.
An "invest" refers to an area of disturbed weather that meteorologists are investigating for potential tropical development. The term "invest" is short for "investigation area."
When an area is designated as an invest, it is given a number (between 90 and 99) followed by the letter "L" for systems in the North Atlantic or "E" for systems in the Eastern Pacific. For example, "Invest 91L" would refer to the 91st area of interest in the Atlantic basin for that season.
The designation of an invest allows meteorologists to focus their resources on a specific area, utilize specialized forecasting models, and issue updates as needed.
A tropical depression is a type of tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of less than 39 mph (34 knots or 63 km/h).
Key characteristics:
It's the first stage of development in the tropical cyclone classification used by the National Hurricane Center, followed by tropical storm and then hurricane.
