Invest 94L
As the Atlantic hurricane season progresses, meteorologists are keeping a close watch on several developing systems that may impact Florida and the surrounding areas. This week, particular attention is given to Invest 92L and Invest 94L, both exhibiting potential to evolve into tropical cyclones. The forecasting models, often referred to as spaghetti models, are showing varied paths, making it challenging to predict the exact trajectory and impact of these systems. While some models suggest potential landfall in parts of Florida, others indicate the systems could veer into the open Atlantic, decreasing the threat to land.
The National Hurricane Center has been issuing regular updates on these disturbances, highlighting the dynamic nature of these developing systems. Currently, focus is on whether one or both of these invests could strengthen to become Tropical Storm Dolly or Cristobal, with ongoing analysis pointing towards possible tropical development in the coming days. Residents in the southeastern United States are advised to stay informed and prepared, given the unpredictability of these weather systems. Meanwhile, emergency preparedness measures are being emphasized, as experts caution against the complacency often seen outside the peak months of the hurricane season.
August 17, 2026, at 2:15 AM EDT
A new tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt, producing scattered moderate convection. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave along 37W is moving west without significant convection, while a central Atlantic tropical wave along 55W shows scattered moderate convection. Another wave in the central Caribbean is enhancing convection over Colombia.
The monsoon trough and ITCZ show no significant convection outside of the previously discussed tropical waves.
In the Gulf of America, high pressure supports moderate to fresh NE-E winds with 2-4 ft seas. Light winds and slight seas dominate elsewhere, while a diurnal surface trough occasionally induces fresh to strong winds north of the Yucatan Peninsula.
The Caribbean Sea experiences scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, with a tight pressure gradient causing fresh to near gale-force easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean and Windward Passage. Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas prevail.
In the Atlantic Ocean, a cold front extends from a low pressure system, with scattered moderate to strong convection north of 25N. Moderate to strong SW-W winds with 5-8 ft seas are found north of 26N. Meanwhile, a 1026 mb high pressure system influences the central and eastern tropical Atlantic, supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025.
Named Storms: 8 to 14
Hurricanes: 3 to 6
Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher): 1 to 3
Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE): 95% to 180% of the median
Primary Influencing Factor: Developing El Niño conditions expected to suppress Atlantic storm activity
This forecast indicates:
Despite the lower forecast, NOAA emphasizes that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to create a major disaster, and residents in hurricane-prone areas should still prepare as usual for the season.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30Key: Active Past Future
*Press/click the storm name to view additional detailsDespite fewer total storms than forecasted, the 2025 season produced several extremely intense hurricanes, including three Category 5 systems, making it one of the more powerful Atlantic seasons in recent history.
2020 - 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes
Hurricane Katrina (2005) - $125 billion
Harvey (2017) - $125 billion
Hurricane Patricia (2015) - 215 mph (345 km/h)
Hurricane Allen (1980) - 190 mph (305 km/h)
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating system that classifies hurricanes based on their sustained wind speeds and the potential damage they can cause. It helps communicate the intensity of hurricanes and the likely impacts on structures and environments. The scale does not account for factors like storm surge or rainfall, focusing only on wind speeds.
Watching the Tropics was originally built as a personal storm tracker with only the most important charts for the Atlantic hurricane basin. Numerous sites are available for tracking hurricanes, but Watching the Tropics minimizes extra "noise" and shows only what you need.
Designed in Florida by
"Watching the tropics" refers to monitoring tropical weather systems, such as tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, in regions close to the equator. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts often use this phrase during hurricane season to indicate that they're keeping an eye on developing weather systems that could potentially strengthen and impact areas like the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean.
Websites, news outlets, or weather services also use "Tropics Watch" to keep the public informed about the latest developments in the tropics, especially during peak hurricane season.
An "invest" refers to an area of disturbed weather that meteorologists are investigating for potential tropical development. The term "invest" is short for "investigation area."
When an area is designated as an invest, it is given a number (between 90 and 99) followed by the letter "L" for systems in the North Atlantic or "E" for systems in the Eastern Pacific. For example, "Invest 91L" would refer to the 91st area of interest in the Atlantic basin for that season.
The designation of an invest allows meteorologists to focus their resources on a specific area, utilize specialized forecasting models, and issue updates as needed.
A tropical depression is a type of tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of less than 39 mph (34 knots or 63 km/h).
Key characteristics:
It's the first stage of development in the tropical cyclone classification used by the National Hurricane Center, followed by tropical storm and then hurricane.
