Subtropical Storm Josephine
Subtropical Storm Josephine Forms
Subtropical Storm Josephine has developed and is expected to move northeastward, away from the United States. As of 5:00 PM AST, Josephine was located about 265 miles south of Nantucket, Massachusetts. The storm is moving north at a speed of 6 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph and a minimum central pressure of 990 mb.
Josephine is projected to accelerate northeastward, staying south of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. The storm is expected to strengthen, becoming a post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds by late Thursday.
No coastal watches or warnings are currently in effect. However, gale-force winds may affect parts of the northeastern U.S. coast, with local National Weather Service offices providing detailed updates. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible along the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast during high tide periods throughout the week.
Large swells from Josephine are impacting the eastern U.S. seaboard and parts of Atlantic Canada, posing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For guidance on rip current risks, visit: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents
The next advisory will be issued at 11:00 PM AST.
Subtropical Storm Josephine has formed in the Atlantic, posing potential threats along the North Carolina coast, including the risk of flooding. The National Hurricane Center has been monitoring the storm's development, as it emerged from a slow-moving nor'easter. As Josephine gains strength, residents in the coastal areas are advised to stay alert and prepared for adverse weather conditions associated with subtropical systems.
The storm is projected to move eastward, decreasing the likelihood of direct landfall but maintaining potential for coastal impacts. Agencies are closely observing the storm's trajectory, especially as it interacts with other weather systems. Forecasts suggest that while Josephine is not expected to become a major hurricane, it could still carry destructive winds and heavy rains. Emergency services in the affected regions urge residents to adhere to weather warnings and take necessary precautions.
Invest 93L
As the powerful Nor'easter known as 93L impacts the coastal regions, meteorologists are closely monitoring its potential evolution into a tropical system. Initially forming as a typical Northeastern storm, 93L has begun to exhibit characteristics indicative of a subtropical or tropical transition, prompting further investigation. The current forecast suggests that if certain conditions persist, the system could strengthen and be named Tropical Storm Josephine, marking a significant shift in its classification. Coastal communities are being warned of continued impacts, including rough seas, strong winds, and heavy rainfall, while authorities remain on high alert.
While Nor'easters are common occurrences along the northern U.S. coastline, the possible transformation of 93L into a named tropical storm is drawing significant attention. Historically, such transitions are rare, but not unprecedented, and their potential development raises unique challenges for forecasting and emergency preparedness. The inclusion of tropical characteristics in this storm system's profile could lead to a renewed examination of how these weather phenomena are classified and monitored in the aftermath of climate change effects. As 93L advances, meteorologists urge residents and stakeholders to stay informed and heed all advisories issued by local authorities to ensure safety and preparedness.
The monsoon trough in the Atlantic runs from The Gambia to 08N31W, then transitions to the ITCZ extending towards 09N51W, with scattered convection along the line. In the Gulf of America, troughs are causing isolated thunderstorms and fresh to strong winds, with seas reaching up to 9 feet and expected to increase. A developing low pressure near the Bahamas will further tighten the pressure gradient, leading to stronger winds and heightened seas over the weekend.
In the Caribbean, persistent showers are noted offshore Colombia, with moderate winds and seas of 2-5 ft across various regions. Winds will strengthen over the weekend due to pressure changes near the Bahamas. In the Atlantic Ocean, a stationary front runs from 31N64W to Cuba, with associated showers and moderate to fresh winds, causing rough seas. A low-pressure system near 28N57W, combined with a trough, is generating significant convection and moderate to fresh winds east of the trough.
The weather pattern is expected to bring fresh to strong northeast to east winds and rough seas, particularly west of 55W, with gale-force winds possible north of a line from 31N60W to the northern Bahamas on Sunday. Mariners are advised to monitor forecasts closely.
October 21, 2026, at 2:15 PM EDTThe National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025.
Named Storms: 8 to 14
Hurricanes: 3 to 6
Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher): 1 to 3
Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE): 95% to 180% of the median
Primary Influencing Factor: Developing El Niño conditions expected to suppress Atlantic storm activity
This forecast indicates:
Despite the lower forecast, NOAA emphasizes that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to create a major disaster, and residents in hurricane-prone areas should still prepare as usual for the season.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30Key: Active Past Future
*Press/click the storm name to view additional detailsDespite fewer total storms than forecasted, the 2025 season produced several extremely intense hurricanes, including three Category 5 systems, making it one of the more powerful Atlantic seasons in recent history.
2020 - 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes
Hurricane Katrina (2005) - $125 billion
Harvey (2017) - $125 billion
Hurricane Patricia (2015) - 215 mph (345 km/h)
Hurricane Allen (1980) - 190 mph (305 km/h)
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating system that classifies hurricanes based on their sustained wind speeds and the potential damage they can cause. It helps communicate the intensity of hurricanes and the likely impacts on structures and environments. The scale does not account for factors like storm surge or rainfall, focusing only on wind speeds.
Watching the Tropics was originally built as a personal storm tracker with only the most important charts for the Atlantic hurricane basin. Numerous sites are available for tracking hurricanes, but Watching the Tropics minimizes extra "noise" and shows only what you need.
Designed in Florida by
"Watching the tropics" refers to monitoring tropical weather systems, such as tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, in regions close to the equator. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts often use this phrase during hurricane season to indicate that they're keeping an eye on developing weather systems that could potentially strengthen and impact areas like the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean.
Websites, news outlets, or weather services also use "Tropics Watch" to keep the public informed about the latest developments in the tropics, especially during peak hurricane season.
An "invest" refers to an area of disturbed weather that meteorologists are investigating for potential tropical development. The term "invest" is short for "investigation area."
When an area is designated as an invest, it is given a number (between 90 and 99) followed by the letter "L" for systems in the North Atlantic or "E" for systems in the Eastern Pacific. For example, "Invest 91L" would refer to the 91st area of interest in the Atlantic basin for that season.
The designation of an invest allows meteorologists to focus their resources on a specific area, utilize specialized forecasting models, and issue updates as needed.
A tropical depression is a type of tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of less than 39 mph (34 knots or 63 km/h).
Key characteristics:
It's the first stage of development in the tropical cyclone classification used by the National Hurricane Center, followed by tropical storm and then hurricane.
