A broad low-pressure system is anticipated over northern Central America and southern Mexico, leading to the potential for heavy rainfall across the Yucatan Peninsula and northern Belize. The combination of regional upper-level divergence and an incoming tropical wave will likely bring significant rain accumulations of 6 to 8 inches over 48 hours, with localized flooding possible. Up to 2 to 4 inches of rain may also affect the areas around eastern Campeche and eastern Yucatan states.
Multiple tropical waves are moving westward across the Atlantic, with a notable wave near 46W showing clear signs in precipitation imagery. Another wave is positioned in the eastern Caribbean near 68W, accompanied by scattered showers.
In the Gulf of America, a surface trough is creating fresh to strong winds across the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, contributing to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. The presence of weak high pressure is influencing the region, with moderate to rough seas forecasted, particularly as the trough shifts northwestward over the weekend.
The Caribbean Sea is experiencing fresh to strong southeast winds, especially in the northwest Caribbean, alongside active showers and thunderstorms due to regional pressure differences. Fresh trade winds and rough seas are anticipated as tropical waves continue to traverse the region, with conditions particularly intense off the Colombian coast.
In the Atlantic Ocean, a weak low-pressure system near 29.5N58.5W is associated with scattered showers. Meanwhile, a ridge extending from the Azores influences moderate trade winds across the area. Forecasts indicate that the western Atlantic ridge will generally remain intact, supporting consistent wind patterns, with fresh to strong afternoon winds near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025.
Named Storms: 8 to 14
Hurricanes: 3 to 6
Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher): 1 to 3
Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE): 95% to 180% of the median
Primary Influencing Factor: Developing El Niño conditions expected to suppress Atlantic storm activity
This forecast indicates:
Despite the lower forecast, NOAA emphasizes that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to create a major disaster, and residents in hurricane-prone areas should still prepare as usual for the season.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30Key: Active Past Future
*Press/click the storm name to view additional detailsDespite fewer total storms than forecasted, the 2025 season produced several extremely intense hurricanes, including three Category 5 systems, making it one of the more powerful Atlantic seasons in recent history.
2020 - 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes
Hurricane Katrina (2005) - $125 billion
Harvey (2017) - $125 billion
Hurricane Patricia (2015) - 215 mph (345 km/h)
Hurricane Allen (1980) - 190 mph (305 km/h)
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating system that classifies hurricanes based on their sustained wind speeds and the potential damage they can cause. It helps communicate the intensity of hurricanes and the likely impacts on structures and environments. The scale does not account for factors like storm surge or rainfall, focusing only on wind speeds.
Watching the Tropics was originally built as a personal storm tracker with only the most important charts for the Atlantic hurricane basin. Numerous sites are available for tracking hurricanes, but Watching the Tropics minimizes extra "noise" and shows only what you need.
Designed in Florida by
"Watching the tropics" refers to monitoring tropical weather systems, such as tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, in regions close to the equator. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts often use this phrase during hurricane season to indicate that they're keeping an eye on developing weather systems that could potentially strengthen and impact areas like the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean.
Websites, news outlets, or weather services also use "Tropics Watch" to keep the public informed about the latest developments in the tropics, especially during peak hurricane season.
An "invest" refers to an area of disturbed weather that meteorologists are investigating for potential tropical development. The term "invest" is short for "investigation area."
When an area is designated as an invest, it is given a number (between 90 and 99) followed by the letter "L" for systems in the North Atlantic or "E" for systems in the Eastern Pacific. For example, "Invest 91L" would refer to the 91st area of interest in the Atlantic basin for that season.
The designation of an invest allows meteorologists to focus their resources on a specific area, utilize specialized forecasting models, and issue updates as needed.
A tropical depression is a type of tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of less than 39 mph (34 knots or 63 km/h).
Key characteristics:
It's the first stage of development in the tropical cyclone classification used by the National Hurricane Center, followed by tropical storm and then hurricane.
