June 27, 2026, at 5:00 AM EDT
An active Caribbean Gale Warning is issued due to a tight pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and the lower pressure over Colombia, resulting in gale-force trade winds offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela this morning and again tonight into Sunday morning. The affected area will see seas ranging from 12 to 15 feet.
Currently, there are three tropical waves: one in the eastern Atlantic near 36W, moving westward with associated scattered moderate to strong convection; another in the central Atlantic near 54W, also moving westward and showing moderate convection; and a third in the western Caribbean near 86W, enhancing shower activity in Central America.
The Gulf of America is experiencing scattered moderate convection in the Bay of Campeche due to a passing tropical wave. A weak high-pressure system maintains gentle to moderate SE-S winds and seas of 3-5 feet. The rest of the Gulf has moderate or lighter winds and slight seas.
In the Caribbean Sea, outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to near gale-force easterly trade winds continue due to a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. Fresh to strong winds are expected in various regions tonight, while moderate to lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are present elsewhere.
The Atlantic Ocean is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas across the basin. A nearly north-to-south aligned surface trough near 64W is expected to move westward, weakening the ridge and diminishing winds. Additionally, a weak cold front is forecast to enter northeastern Florida waters Monday night.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025.
Named Storms: 8 to 14
Hurricanes: 3 to 6
Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher): 1 to 3
Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE): 95% to 180% of the median
Primary Influencing Factor: Developing El Niño conditions expected to suppress Atlantic storm activity
This forecast indicates:
Despite the lower forecast, NOAA emphasizes that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to create a major disaster, and residents in hurricane-prone areas should still prepare as usual for the season.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30Key: Active Past Future
*Press/click the storm name to view additional detailsDespite fewer total storms than forecasted, the 2025 season produced several extremely intense hurricanes, including three Category 5 systems, making it one of the more powerful Atlantic seasons in recent history.
2020 - 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes
Hurricane Katrina (2005) - $125 billion
Harvey (2017) - $125 billion
Hurricane Patricia (2015) - 215 mph (345 km/h)
Hurricane Allen (1980) - 190 mph (305 km/h)
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating system that classifies hurricanes based on their sustained wind speeds and the potential damage they can cause. It helps communicate the intensity of hurricanes and the likely impacts on structures and environments. The scale does not account for factors like storm surge or rainfall, focusing only on wind speeds.
Watching the Tropics was originally built as a personal storm tracker with only the most important charts for the Atlantic hurricane basin. Numerous sites are available for tracking hurricanes, but Watching the Tropics minimizes extra "noise" and shows only what you need.
Designed in Florida by
"Watching the tropics" refers to monitoring tropical weather systems, such as tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, in regions close to the equator. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts often use this phrase during hurricane season to indicate that they're keeping an eye on developing weather systems that could potentially strengthen and impact areas like the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean.
Websites, news outlets, or weather services also use "Tropics Watch" to keep the public informed about the latest developments in the tropics, especially during peak hurricane season.
An "invest" refers to an area of disturbed weather that meteorologists are investigating for potential tropical development. The term "invest" is short for "investigation area."
When an area is designated as an invest, it is given a number (between 90 and 99) followed by the letter "L" for systems in the North Atlantic or "E" for systems in the Eastern Pacific. For example, "Invest 91L" would refer to the 91st area of interest in the Atlantic basin for that season.
The designation of an invest allows meteorologists to focus their resources on a specific area, utilize specialized forecasting models, and issue updates as needed.
A tropical depression is a type of tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of less than 39 mph (34 knots or 63 km/h).
Key characteristics:
It's the first stage of development in the tropical cyclone classification used by the National Hurricane Center, followed by tropical storm and then hurricane.
