February 4, 2026, at 1:15 PM EST
Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Gale-force winds from a deep low pressure system in the north-central to east Atlantic are causing large NW to N swells in the central subtropical Atlantic, with seas reaching 12 to 16 feet between 26N and 31N, and 30W and 55W. This area of rough seas will shift east through Thursday night, moving east of 35W by Friday.
In the Gulf of America, a cold front spans from Louisiana to Texas. Ahead of the front, moderate to fresh S to SW winds prevail, while fresh to strong N to NE winds are behind it. As the front moves south through Thursday, expect fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas, gradually diminishing as high pressure settles over the Gulf.
In the Caribbean Sea, a stationary front runs from the northern Leeward Islands to near 15N78W, with a surface trough near 80W. Fresh to strong E winds continue in the central Caribbean. A new cold front will reach the NW Caribbean on Thursday morning, merging with the trough and bringing fresh to strong N winds and increasing seas, which will persist through Saturday.
In the Atlantic Ocean, a cold front extends from 31N32W to 22N51W. Fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas are noted behind this front. A high pressure area supports main light to gentle winds. Another cold front is expected to move off NE Florida on Thursday, generating fresh to strong winds and building seas. Gale force gusts may occur near Bermuda to Hispaniola by Friday morning.
The 2026 Hurricane season starts on June 1, 2026 in
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025.
Named Storms: 13 to 19
Hurricanes: 6 to 10
Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher): 3 to 5
Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE): 95% to 180% of the median
This forecast indicates a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30Key: Active Past Future
*Press/click the storm name to view additional details2020 - 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes
Hurricane Katrina (2005) - $125 billion
Harvey (2017) - $125 billion
Hurricane Patricia (2015) - 215 mph (345 km/h)
Hurricane Allen (1980) - 190 mph (305 km/h)
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating system that classifies hurricanes based on their sustained wind speeds and the potential damage they can cause. It helps communicate the intensity of hurricanes and the likely impacts on structures and environments. The scale does not account for factors like storm surge or rainfall, focusing only on wind speeds.
Watching the Tropics was originally built as a personal storm tracker with only the most important charts for the Atlantic hurricane basin. Numerous sites are available for tracking hurricanes, but Watching the Tropics minimizes extra "noise" and shows only what you need.
Designed in Florida by
"Watching the tropics" refers to monitoring tropical weather systems, such as tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, in regions close to the equator. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts often use this phrase during hurricane season to indicate that they're keeping an eye on developing weather systems that could potentially strengthen and impact areas like the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean.
Websites, news outlets, or weather services also use "Tropics Watch" to keep the public informed about the latest developments in the tropics, especially during peak hurricane season.
An "invest" refers to an area of disturbed weather that meteorologists are investigating for potential tropical development. The term "invest" is short for "investigation area."
When an area is designated as an invest, it is given a number (between 90 and 99) followed by the letter "L" for systems in the North Atlantic or "E" for systems in the Eastern Pacific. For example, "Invest 91L" would refer to the 91st area of interest in the Atlantic basin for that season.
The designation of an invest allows meteorologists to focus their resources on a specific area, utilize specialized forecasting models, and issue updates as needed.
A tropical depression is a type of tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of less than 39 mph (34 knots or 63 km/h).
Key characteristics:
It's the first stage of development in the tropical cyclone classification used by the National Hurricane Center, followed by tropical storm and then hurricane.
