An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is currently located along 31W, moving westward at a speed of 10 kt, with a 1009 mb low-pressure system near 17.5N31W. Winds are reaching up to 25 kt within 300 nm of the center over the NE and SE semicircles, with seas between 7 to 11 ft. There is moderate to strong convection from 11N to 23N between 23W and 35W. Environmental conditions offer only marginal support for development over the next few days, with heavy rainfall forecasted for the Cabo Verde Islands. The chance for development into a tropical cyclone remains low for the next 48 hours and through the next 7 days.
In the Gulf of America, a stationary front spans southern Florida, extending into the S Texas coastal waters, with showers near the frontal boundary. A high-pressure system centered over SE Mississippi results in gentle to moderate winds with 2-5 ft seas across the Gulf. The front will dissipate by Wednesday, and a cold front is expected to enter the northwest Gulf by Friday night, bringing strong to near-gale force winds.
The Caribbean Sea experiences scattered moderate convection due to an upper-level low along 72W, with fresh to strong E winds across the central Caribbean. This will diminish throughout the night. The East Pacific monsoon trough supports strong convection in the SW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades continue across the central and eastern Caribbean, increasing again later in the week as high pressure builds northward.
In the Atlantic Ocean, a cold front extending from 31N73W to the SE Florida coast is becoming stationary, with scattered showers along its path. Behind the front, moderate NW to W winds prevail. A stationary front in the tropics stretches from 31N35W southwestwards, with showers extending from 56W to 67W. Fresh NE winds occur north of the front, with seas reaching 7-11 ft in NW to N swell east of 60W. Another cold front is anticipated by late Friday night, bringing strong winds and rough seas.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025.
Named Storms: 8 to 14
Hurricanes: 3 to 6
Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher): 1 to 3
Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE): 95% to 180% of the median
Primary Influencing Factor: Developing El Niño conditions expected to suppress Atlantic storm activity
This forecast indicates:
Despite the lower forecast, NOAA emphasizes that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to create a major disaster, and residents in hurricane-prone areas should still prepare as usual for the season.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30Key: Active Past Future
*Press/click the storm name to view additional detailsDespite fewer total storms than forecasted, the 2025 season produced several extremely intense hurricanes, including three Category 5 systems, making it one of the more powerful Atlantic seasons in recent history.
2020 - 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes
Hurricane Katrina (2005) - $125 billion
Harvey (2017) - $125 billion
Hurricane Patricia (2015) - 215 mph (345 km/h)
Hurricane Allen (1980) - 190 mph (305 km/h)
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating system that classifies hurricanes based on their sustained wind speeds and the potential damage they can cause. It helps communicate the intensity of hurricanes and the likely impacts on structures and environments. The scale does not account for factors like storm surge or rainfall, focusing only on wind speeds.
Watching the Tropics was originally built as a personal storm tracker with only the most important charts for the Atlantic hurricane basin. Numerous sites are available for tracking hurricanes, but Watching the Tropics minimizes extra "noise" and shows only what you need.
Designed in Florida by
"Watching the tropics" refers to monitoring tropical weather systems, such as tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, in regions close to the equator. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts often use this phrase during hurricane season to indicate that they're keeping an eye on developing weather systems that could potentially strengthen and impact areas like the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean.
Websites, news outlets, or weather services also use "Tropics Watch" to keep the public informed about the latest developments in the tropics, especially during peak hurricane season.
An "invest" refers to an area of disturbed weather that meteorologists are investigating for potential tropical development. The term "invest" is short for "investigation area."
When an area is designated as an invest, it is given a number (between 90 and 99) followed by the letter "L" for systems in the North Atlantic or "E" for systems in the Eastern Pacific. For example, "Invest 91L" would refer to the 91st area of interest in the Atlantic basin for that season.
The designation of an invest allows meteorologists to focus their resources on a specific area, utilize specialized forecasting models, and issue updates as needed.
A tropical depression is a type of tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of less than 39 mph (34 knots or 63 km/h).
Key characteristics:
It's the first stage of development in the tropical cyclone classification used by the National Hurricane Center, followed by tropical storm and then hurricane.
