Watching the Tropics

Watching the Tropics is updated at 2AM, 5AM, 8AM, 11AM, 2PM, 5PM, 8PM, and 11PM daily
8/12/2026 5:03:32 AM
Atlantic Hurricane Basin Tracking Updates
Watching the Tropics tracks storms destined to the United States East coast, the Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico out of the Atlantic hurricane basin.
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Invest 93L Invest 93L

Advisory:
8/12/2026 12:00:00 AM UTC
Location:
37, -46.6
Winds:
35 mph
Pressure:
1011 mb
Storm Invest 93L Spaghetti Models
Invest 93L Spaghetti Models
Storm Invest 93L Precipitation
Invest 93L Precipitation
Storm Invest 93L Thunderstorm Probability
Invest 93L Thunderstorm Probability
Storm Invest 93L wind speed projections
Invest 93L Wind Speed Projections
Storm Invest 93L wind speed history
Invest 93L Wind Speed History

Invest 93L Status

A new weather disturbance, Invest 93C, is developing in the Pacific Ocean with the potential to escalate into a tropical depression by Wednesday. Meteorologists are closely monitoring the system's path and strength as it churns in the ocean. Predictions indicate that the storm could impact weather conditions significantly, prompting coastal areas to brace for potential heavy rains and strong winds. Precautions are advised as authorities keep a vigilant eye on the storm's progression.

Meanwhile, in the Atlantic, Hurricane Gabrielle is drawing attention alongside Invest 93L and Invest 94L, with their projected paths sparking concern in areas like Naples, Florida. Spaghetti models indicate uncertainty in the storms' trajectories, making precise forecasts difficult. Residents along the Gulf Coast, particularly near Fort Myers, Cape Coral, and Lee County, are on alert for potential adverse weather impacts. The National Hurricane Center continues to provide updated information as these weather systems evolve.

Invest 92L Invest 92L

Advisory:
8/12/2026 12:00:00 AM UTC
Location:
10.7, -36
Winds:
25 mph
Pressure:
1011 mb
Storm Invest 92L Spaghetti Models
Invest 92L Spaghetti Models
Storm Invest 92L Precipitation
Invest 92L Precipitation
Storm Invest 92L Thunderstorm Probability
Invest 92L Thunderstorm Probability
Storm Invest 92L wind speed projections
Invest 92L Wind Speed Projections
Storm Invest 92L wind speed history
Invest 92L Wind Speed History

Invest 92L Status

As the Atlantic hurricane season intensifies, meteorologists are closely monitoring a surge in tropical activity. Several tropical waves are on the brink of forming over the Atlantic Ocean, with a keen eye on those poised to emerge from Africa's west coast. This heightened activity suggests a potential increase in tropical depressions, with one system reportedly likely to form into a named storm in the coming days. The convergence of these systems could signal a significant period of storm development, necessitating vigilant tracking and preparedness.

The National Hurricane Center is paying particular attention to an area designated as Invest 92L, which may soon transform into Tropical Storm Gabrielle. As spaghetti models predict various trajectories, the potential impact on Florida and nearby regions remains under scrutiny. Residents are urged to review emergency plans and gather necessary supplies in anticipation of possible storm hits. This development highlights the importance of staying informed during the peak of hurricane season, as conditions can escalate rapidly, emphasizing preparedness and safety.

7 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
GOES 19
Sandwich Composite
Sandwich Composite
Today's Tornado Risk
Today's Tornado Risk
8-14 Day Temperature Outlook
8-14 Day Temperature Outlook
8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook
8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook
Global Tropics Hazard Outlook
Global Tropics Hazard Outlook
30 Day Coral Reef Watch
Current Atlantic and Gulf Radar
Current Atlantic and Gulf Winds

Atlantic Hurricane Basin Summary

August 12, 2026, at 2:15 AM EDT

Invest AL92 in the central tropical Atlantic is exhibiting increased organization with showers and thunderstorms. A tropical depression is forecasted to likely develop within the next few days as it moves westward. There is a medium chance of tropical formation within 48 hours and a high chance over the next 7 days.

Multiple tropical waves are currently tracked including one near the African coast, another near 57W, and others affecting regions such as Hispaniola and the Gulf of Honduras. These waves are generating scattered moderate to isolated strong convection in respective areas.

The high-pressure system over the Gulf of America is producing light to moderate winds and seas, with occasional fresh winds near the Yucatan Peninsula. This pattern is expected to persist through the forecast period with slight modifications over the weekend.

In the Caribbean Sea, the interaction of a pressure gradient is causing strong winds over the central regions with fresh winds through the Windward Passage. The arrival of a tropical wave will intensify winds and expand coverage over central and eastern areas later in the week.

In the Atlantic Ocean, high pressure dominates north of 20N, with gentle winds and moderate seas. A tropical wave's development is anticipated, likely forming a tropical depression as it moves toward the Lesser Antilles this weekend.

2026 Hurricane Prediction

​NOAA's 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025.

  • Named Storms: 8 to 14

  • Hurricanes: 3 to 6

  • Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher): 1 to 3

  • Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE): 95% to 180% of the median

  • Primary Influencing Factor: Developing El Niño conditions expected to suppress Atlantic storm activity

This forecast indicates:

  • 55% chance of a below-normal season
  • 35% chance of a near-normal season
  • 10% chance of an above-normal season

Despite the lower forecast, NOAA emphasizes that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to create a major disaster, and residents in hurricane-prone areas should still prepare as usual for the season.

Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30

2026 Storm Names

Arthur- TS Bertha- TS Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulett Rene Sally Teddy Vicky Wilfred

Key: Active Past Future

*Press/click the storm name to view additional details

2025 Hurricane Summary

  • 13 named storms
  • 5 hurricanes
  • 4 major hurricanes (Cat. 3+)
  • Total damage: ~$9.4 billion
Notable Hurricanes
  • Hurricane Erin: In August, Erin rapidly intensified into a Category 5 hurricane over the Atlantic, becoming one of the strongest storms of the season. Although it remained offshore of the United States, it generated dangerous surf, coastal flooding, and massive waves along portions of the East Coast.
  • Hurricane Gabrielle: Gabrielle strengthened into a powerful Category 4 hurricane in September over the central Atlantic before transitioning into an extratropical system near Europe, bringing impacts to the Azores and parts of Spain.
  • Hurricane Humberto: Humberto became another Category 5 hurricane during the season but stayed over open Atlantic waters, contributing significantly to the season’s above-normal ACE despite limited land impacts
  • Hurricane Melissa: Melissa was the strongest storm of the 2025 Atlantic season, intensifying into a catastrophic Category 5 hurricane before making landfall in Jamaica near peak intensity. The storm caused widespread destruction across Jamaica and was later retired from the Atlantic naming list due to its severity.

Despite fewer total storms than forecasted, the 2025 season produced several extremely intense hurricanes, including three Category 5 systems, making it one of the more powerful Atlantic seasons in recent history.

Atlantic Hurricane Statistics

Named
Hurricanes
Major
Average
14.4
7.2
3.2
High
30
15
7
Low
4
2
0

Most Active Hurricane Season

2020 - 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes

Costliest Hurricanes

Hurricane Katrina (2005) - $125 billion

Harvey (2017) - $125 billion

Strongest Hurricanes (Based on Wind Speed)

Hurricane Patricia (2015) - 215 mph (345 km/h)

Hurricane Allen (1980) - 190 mph (305 km/h)

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale in MPH

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating system that classifies hurricanes based on their sustained wind speeds and the potential damage they can cause. It helps communicate the intensity of hurricanes and the likely impacts on structures and environments. The scale does not account for factors like storm surge or rainfall, focusing only on wind speeds.

About Watching the Tropics

Watching the Tropics was originally built as a personal storm tracker with only the most important charts for the Atlantic hurricane basin. Numerous sites are available for tracking hurricanes, but Watching the Tropics minimizes extra "noise" and shows only what you need.

Designed in Florida by

Dillaman Research DillaDev.com

What does Watching the Tropics mean?

"Watching the tropics" refers to monitoring tropical weather systems, such as tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, in regions close to the equator. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts often use this phrase during hurricane season to indicate that they're keeping an eye on developing weather systems that could potentially strengthen and impact areas like the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean.

Websites, news outlets, or weather services also use "Tropics Watch" to keep the public informed about the latest developments in the tropics, especially during peak hurricane season.

What is an "invest" in the context of hurricanes?

An "invest" refers to an area of disturbed weather that meteorologists are investigating for potential tropical development. The term "invest" is short for "investigation area."

When an area is designated as an invest, it is given a number (between 90 and 99) followed by the letter "L" for systems in the North Atlantic or "E" for systems in the Eastern Pacific. For example, "Invest 91L" would refer to the 91st area of interest in the Atlantic basin for that season.

The designation of an invest allows meteorologists to focus their resources on a specific area, utilize specialized forecasting models, and issue updates as needed.

What is a Tropical Depression?

A tropical depression is a type of tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of less than 39 mph (34 knots or 63 km/h).

Key characteristics:

  • Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms
  • Has a defined surface circulation
  • Lacks the wind intensity of stronger tropical cyclones
  • May eventually strengthen into a tropical storm if conditions are favorable

It's the first stage of development in the tropical cyclone classification used by the National Hurricane Center, followed by tropical storm and then hurricane.

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