June 13, 2026, at 8:15 AM EDT
A tropical wave is present in the far eastern Atlantic along 19W, south of 15N, moving westward at 10-15 kt, showing scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 03N to 09N between 13N and 29W. Another tropical wave in the Atlantic along 34W, south of 15N, is moving westward at 15 kt with a few showers noted near the trough axis. A third wave along 52W-53W, south of 15N, is moving westward at 15 kt with no significant convection near the trough axis. In the central Caribbean, a tropical wave along 78W-79W, south of 18N, is moving westward at 10 kt with associated isolated moderate convection near Panama and strong convection near Colombia's coast and coastal waters.
The monsoon trough extends into the Atlantic from Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 07N26W, with the ITCZ stretching from 07N26W to 05.5N33W, and resuming from 04.5N36W to the coast of Brazil near 00.5N50W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted near Africa from 01N to 05.5N east of 12W, while a few showers are seen near the ITCZ elsewhere.
In the Gulf of America, a broad area of low pressure is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms, especially south of 25N and west of 91W, with strong SE winds up to 35 kt moving across the Yucatan Peninsula. A tight pressure gradient between the low and the Atlantic ridge sustains fresh to strong SE winds and moderate to locally rough seas up to 9 ft south of 26N and west of 88W. This system will shift northwest through the weekend and potentially reemerge over the northwestern Gulf on Tuesday and Wednesday. Fresh to strong SE winds and moderate to rough seas, with scattered showers and thunderstorms, will continue through Sunday night.
In the Caribbean Sea, moderate convection continues across the NW Caribbean, with strong convection in the Gulf of Honduras linked to activity in the Bay of Campeche. The subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic supports fresh to gale-force easterly trade winds and moderate to rough seas in the central and SE Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong SE winds and rough seas will continue over the Gulf of Honduras and the northwestern Caribbean through Saturday night.
In the Atlantic Ocean, a stationary front extends from 31N37W to 28.5N43W, followed by a surface trough to 30N52W. The tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge extending across central Florida, supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas. This ridge will maintain its position through Sunday, reorganizing along 60W from Sunday night through Monday, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds south of 22N with gentle anticyclonic flow elsewhere, and fresh winds near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola each afternoon through late evening.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025.
Named Storms: 8 to 14
Hurricanes: 3 to 6
Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher): 1 to 3
Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE): 95% to 180% of the median
Primary Influencing Factor: Developing El Niño conditions expected to suppress Atlantic storm activity
This forecast indicates:
Despite the lower forecast, NOAA emphasizes that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to create a major disaster, and residents in hurricane-prone areas should still prepare as usual for the season.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30Key: Active Past Future
*Press/click the storm name to view additional detailsDespite fewer total storms than forecasted, the 2025 season produced several extremely intense hurricanes, including three Category 5 systems, making it one of the more powerful Atlantic seasons in recent history.
2020 - 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes
Hurricane Katrina (2005) - $125 billion
Harvey (2017) - $125 billion
Hurricane Patricia (2015) - 215 mph (345 km/h)
Hurricane Allen (1980) - 190 mph (305 km/h)
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating system that classifies hurricanes based on their sustained wind speeds and the potential damage they can cause. It helps communicate the intensity of hurricanes and the likely impacts on structures and environments. The scale does not account for factors like storm surge or rainfall, focusing only on wind speeds.
Watching the Tropics was originally built as a personal storm tracker with only the most important charts for the Atlantic hurricane basin. Numerous sites are available for tracking hurricanes, but Watching the Tropics minimizes extra "noise" and shows only what you need.
Designed in Florida by
"Watching the tropics" refers to monitoring tropical weather systems, such as tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, in regions close to the equator. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts often use this phrase during hurricane season to indicate that they're keeping an eye on developing weather systems that could potentially strengthen and impact areas like the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean.
Websites, news outlets, or weather services also use "Tropics Watch" to keep the public informed about the latest developments in the tropics, especially during peak hurricane season.
An "invest" refers to an area of disturbed weather that meteorologists are investigating for potential tropical development. The term "invest" is short for "investigation area."
When an area is designated as an invest, it is given a number (between 90 and 99) followed by the letter "L" for systems in the North Atlantic or "E" for systems in the Eastern Pacific. For example, "Invest 91L" would refer to the 91st area of interest in the Atlantic basin for that season.
The designation of an invest allows meteorologists to focus their resources on a specific area, utilize specialized forecasting models, and issue updates as needed.
A tropical depression is a type of tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of less than 39 mph (34 knots or 63 km/h).
Key characteristics:
It's the first stage of development in the tropical cyclone classification used by the National Hurricane Center, followed by tropical storm and then hurricane.
