A significant swell event is occurring in the Atlantic Ocean, where a cold front stretches from the north-central Atlantic to near the Leeward Islands and a stationary front continues to the northern coast of Colombia. This is creating large NW swells with seas ranging from 12 to 17 feet in certain areas. The front will move eastward, spreading large swells across the Atlantic through Saturday, but these swells will begin to subside west of 35W by Friday night.
In the Gulf of Mexico, high pressure over North Florida is causing fresh to strong southerly winds in the western Gulf. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf by early Wednesday and will bring fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas as it sweeps across through late Thursday. Conditions will calm as high pressure sets in by Friday.
The Caribbean Sea features a stationary front from the northern Leeward Islands to Colombia, which is generating strong N to NE winds and rough seas. The front is expected to dissipate by Wednesday, with another cold front reaching the NW Caribbean late Thursday. This will merge with existing moisture, leading to increased winds and seas, particularly across the SW Caribbean.
In the Atlantic Ocean, fresh to strong winds are observed around a cold front extending from 31N43W to the northern Leeward Islands. Very rough seas are present behind this front, with rough conditions expanding westward. The northern part of the front will move east, and a new cold front will emerge off NE Florida by Thursday, bringing fresh to strong winds and potential gale conditions near Bermuda by Friday.
February 3, 2026, at 8:15 PM ESTThe 2026 Hurricane season starts on June 1, 2026 in
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025.
Named Storms: 13 to 19
Hurricanes: 6 to 10
Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher): 3 to 5
Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE): 95% to 180% of the median
This forecast indicates a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30Key: Active Past Future
*Press/click the storm name to view additional details2020 - 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes
Hurricane Katrina (2005) - $125 billion
Harvey (2017) - $125 billion
Hurricane Patricia (2015) - 215 mph (345 km/h)
Hurricane Allen (1980) - 190 mph (305 km/h)
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating system that classifies hurricanes based on their sustained wind speeds and the potential damage they can cause. It helps communicate the intensity of hurricanes and the likely impacts on structures and environments. The scale does not account for factors like storm surge or rainfall, focusing only on wind speeds.
Watching the Tropics was originally built as a personal storm tracker with only the most important charts for the Atlantic hurricane basin. Numerous sites are available for tracking hurricanes, but Watching the Tropics minimizes extra "noise" and shows only what you need.
Designed in Florida by
"Watching the tropics" refers to monitoring tropical weather systems, such as tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, in regions close to the equator. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts often use this phrase during hurricane season to indicate that they're keeping an eye on developing weather systems that could potentially strengthen and impact areas like the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean.
Websites, news outlets, or weather services also use "Tropics Watch" to keep the public informed about the latest developments in the tropics, especially during peak hurricane season.
An "invest" refers to an area of disturbed weather that meteorologists are investigating for potential tropical development. The term "invest" is short for "investigation area."
When an area is designated as an invest, it is given a number (between 90 and 99) followed by the letter "L" for systems in the North Atlantic or "E" for systems in the Eastern Pacific. For example, "Invest 91L" would refer to the 91st area of interest in the Atlantic basin for that season.
The designation of an invest allows meteorologists to focus their resources on a specific area, utilize specialized forecasting models, and issue updates as needed.
A tropical depression is a type of tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of less than 39 mph (34 knots or 63 km/h).
Key characteristics:
It's the first stage of development in the tropical cyclone classification used by the National Hurricane Center, followed by tropical storm and then hurricane.
